Emerging from consolidation, cautious amid global uncertainties. Key levels at 0.6550, 0.65, and 0.6450. Fed policy, world trade to influence.

• The Australian dollar is attempting to emerge from a brief period of consolidation.
• Examining the Australian dollar, which has naturally appreciated during Monday's trading session, it's important to keep in mind that it was President's Day in the US, so liquidity may have occasionally been a little off.
• Naturally, the New York session has a lot of influence, and it's important to remember that the market is still figuring out whether or not to take risk on.
• After all, there are a lot of questions out there to be asked about the world, and of course the Australian dollars highly sensitive to all of that.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is very susceptible to that potential noise and therefore position sizing will be crucial. Additionally, the daily candlestick somewhat retreated as we approached New York, despite breaking above the 0.6550 level.

One possible target is the 50-day EMA that is above. The 200-day EMA is the next moving average that will act as a barrier. The 0.6450 and 0.65 levels, which both provide support, are below. Anything below that is likely to send the Australian dollar lower, and it might even lead to a broad run to the US dollar. You'll have to observe how that transpires. However, I do believe that choppiness will predominate over other factors. As we keep using the 0.65 mark as a kind of turning point.

All Else Being Equal

If all else is equal, this market is essentially attempting to predict the future of world trade. Later this year, the Fed is expected to ease, which might support the Australian dollar. However, there is also the potential for a global crisis that could lead to a flight to safety towards the US dollar. If that is the case, the market will probably keep making a lot of noise and be worried about a number of various things, which will increase the overall volatility of the picture. Given this, take care when choosing the size of your position. Ultimately, that could be the one thing that saves you unless of course you are a short-term trader and can babysit your position. The market will continue to search for some type of momentum, but it obviously hasn’t found it quite yet.

More By This Author: