(Click on image to enlarge)

Trade data from the Census Department, chart by Mish

The Advance Economic Indicators for May are headed in the wrong direction.

Advance International Trade in Goods: The international trade deficit was $100.6 billion in May, up $2.7 billion from $98.0 billion in April. Exports of goods for May were $166.7 billion, $4.6 billion less than April exports. Imports of goods for May were $267.3 billion, $2.0 billion less than April imports.

Advance Wholesale Inventories: Wholesale inventories for May, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $901.6 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.2 percent) from April 2024, and were down 0.5 percent (±0.7 percent) from May 2023. The March 2024 to April 2024 percentage change was revised from up 0.1 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.2 percent (±0.4 percent).

Advance Retail Inventories: Retail inventories for May, adjusted for seasonal variations and trading day differences, but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $796.8 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.2 percent) from April 2024, and were up 5.0 percent (±0.7 percent) from May 2023. The March 2024 to April 2024 percentage change was unrevised from the preliminary estimate of up 0.7 percent (±0.2 percent).

Adding to Inventory

Why wholesalers and retailers are adding inventory in a clearly weakening economic environment is a mystery.

Advance Trade Since 1992

(Click on image to enlarge)

Advance trade numbers are goods only. The full report is goods and services.

The US has consistently had a goods deficit for decades. The US typically runs a small trade surplus in services.

Recessions (yellow highlights) tend to improve balance of trade, temporarily.

Winning Big!

The Fake News Media is doing everything they can to crash the economy because they think that will be bad for me and my re-election. The problem they have is that the economy is way too strong and we will soon be winning big on Trade, and everyone knows that, including China!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 15, 2019

“We will soon be winning big on Trade, and everyone knows that, including China!”

Are We “Winning Big Yet?”

• Deficit Trump Years: From -66,402 to -84,938
• Deficit Biden Years: From -84,939 to -100,617 (and counting)

An Amazing Deal!

.....The Penalty Tariffs set for December 15th will not be charged because of the fact that we made the deal. We will begin negotiations on the Phase Two Deal immediately, rather than waiting until after the 2020 Election. This is an amazing deal for all. Thank you!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 13, 2019

Dream Candidate?!

“Biden would be China’s Dream Candidate, because there would be no more Tariffs, no more demands that China stop stealing our IP, things would go back to the old days with America’s manufacturers & workers getting shafted. He has Zero Credibility!” @IngrahamAngle So true!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 13, 2019

Competitive, Escalating Nonsense

Trump’s Tariff policy and Biden’s tariff policy are nearly the same.

The best description of both is “Competitive, Escalating Nonsense”

Tariffs cannot and will not fix as problem caused when Nixon took the US off the gold standard.

Neither Trump nor Biden understand this.

Is Globalization Dead? Two Views, Brad Setser’s and Mine

For more on this discussion, please see Is Globalization Dead? Two Views, Brad Setser’s and Mine

On the basis of rising Chinese exports, Setser says globalization is alive and well.

I, strongly disagree. Click on the above link for my rebuttal.

By the way, when I saw that report, I made a mental note that the GDPNow forecast would take a big hit. I will have more on GDPNow later today or this weekend.

More By This Author: