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The Commerce Department revised March durable goods orders from +2.6 percent to +0.8 percent. Now it reports a 0.7 percent gain vs. an expectation of -0.5 percent.

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Durable Goods data from Commerce Department, revision inset from Bloomberg Econoday, chart by Mish

Advance Durable Goods

• New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up three consecutive months, increased $1.9 billion or 0.7 percent to $284.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.
• This followed a 0.8 percent March increase.
• Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent.
• Excluding defense, new orders were virtually unchanged.
• Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, led the increase, $1.1 billion or 1.2 percent to $96.2 billion.

Shipments

• Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, up three consecutive months, increased $3.4 billion or 1.2 percent to $285.7 billion.
• This followed a 0.1 percent March increase.
• Transportation equipment, also up three consecutive months, led the increase, $3.1 billion or 3.4 percent to $93.0 billion.

What Happened?

The Commerce Department made a massive revision to transportation orders. There have been a lot of revisions lately, most of them very negative.

New Orders and Shipments in Millions of Dollars

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I created some new charts today to show how misleading the reported data is.

New Orders and Shipments in Millions of Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Dollars

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Adjusted for inflation, durable goods new order and shipments are at best going nowhere. Transportation orders are keeping everything afloat.

Durable Goods Real New Orders Percent Change From Year Ago

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Real Orders and Shipments Year-Over-Year Key Points

• Year-Over-Year Real New orders are down four consecutive months
• Year-Over-Year Real Shipments are down 14 out of the last 16 months

Shipments are important because that’s what feeds GDP. And it's hard for shipments to do well if new orders are plunging.

New Home Sales Sink 4.7 Percent on Top of Huge Negative Revisions

New Home Sales plunged. And the Census Department completely revised away last month’s fictional 8.8 percent rise.

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New Home Sales by Census Department, Chart by Mish

For discussion, please see New Home Sales Sink 4.7 Percent on Top of Huge Negative Revisions.

Second Big Revision

Here’s my headline from last month: New Home Sales Rise 8.8 Percent After 3.8 Percent Negative Revision.

Expect Big Negative Revisions to BLS Monthly Jobs in 2023

On April 24, the BLS released a little-read jobs report that shows reported jobs in 2023 may be wildly overstated. In turn, that means GDP is likely overstated as well.

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Business Employment Dynamics (BED) data and and Monthly Job Data both from the BLS, chart by Mish

For discussion, please see Expect Big Negative Revisions to BLS Monthly Jobs in 2023, GDP Too.

Consistently large negative revisions are the hallmark of recessions.

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