The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.1046
• Prev Close: 1.1071
• % chg. over the last day: +0.22 %

The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI confirmed that the manufacturing sector continued to contract in Germany and France in August. Traders are betting that the ECB will cut interest rates for the second time at its September 12 meeting. The odds of another cut in borrowing costs rose after preliminary data showed Eurozone inflation fell to 2.2% in August, the lowest level since July 2021, while core inflation also fell to 2.8% after three months at 2.9%. Traders are betting on two or three more ECB rate cuts this year.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1050, 1.1017, 1.0950, 1.0905, 1.0884
• Resistance levels: 1.1100, 1.1146, 1.1191, 1.1275

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair in the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is trading below the moving averages, reaching the support level of 1.1050, where there is a partial fixation of sales. However, the buyers' initiative is still not enough for the reversal. Although intraday selling is predominant, there are no optimal entry points for sell positions right now. Selling can be initiated when the price consolidates below 1.1050. Buying should be considered only above 1.1076.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1191 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

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News feed for 2024.09.03:

• – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3124
• Prev Close: 1.3142
• % chg. over the last day: +0.14 %

The British pound sterling was near $1.31 in early September after rising 2.1% in August, as expectations of a divergence in US and UK monetary policy continue to support the currency. Weak economic data in the US and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statements about a possible rate cut weakened the dollar, while stronger economic data in the UK and the Bank of England's cautious approach to further rate cuts strengthened the pound. Traders expect a 41 basis point rate cut from the BoE by the end of the year. The US Federal Reserve, in turn, is estimated to cut rates by 103 basis points this year.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3109, 1.3055, 1.2973, 1.2932, 1.2848, 1.2800
• Resistance levels: 1.3158, 1.3201, 1.3306

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish but close to the shift. The price has declined to the priority change level. Buyers are trying to stop the decline, but the sellers' pressure intraday is still prevailing. Under these market conditions, a break of 1.3109 will open the way for the price to 1.3055. Buying should be considered above 1.3158.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down the support level of 1.3109 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

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There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 146.03
• Prev Close: 146.88
• % chg. over the last day: +0.58 %

The Japanese yen fell to 146 per dollar, hitting a near two-week low and facing pressure from a strengthening dollar as the latest US inflation data made traders cut bets on an aggressive rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Markets now await the all-important monthly US jobs report this week as the Fed's focus shifts from inflation to the labor market. As for domestic monetary policy, Bank of Japan officials recently said they are ready to raise interest rates again if the outlook for the economy and prices holds up.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 145.22, 144.70, 144.09, 142.69, 142.80, 140.22, 137.26
• Resistance levels: 146.48, 146.62, 148.29, 150.88, 151.26, 153.80

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY has changed to an upward trend. The price has consolidated above the level of priority change. Currently, the price tested the resistance level at 147.17 and corrected to the 146.29 support level. Further, we are watching the price action. If the buyers show initiative, we can open a buy deal to renew 147.17. The price consolidation below 146.29 will open the way for the price to 145.22.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 144.65, the downtrend will likely resume.

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There is no news feed for today.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

This week's focus will be on ISM surveys, JOLTS job openings, ADP employment reports, and Non-Farm Payroll data. Several Fed officials have recently noted the growing risks in the labor market. Meanwhile, the latest US inflation data has dampened expectations of a significant 50 bps Fed rate cut in September. Markets still expect the Fed to cut rates by 100 bps over the remaining three meetings this year, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets.

Trading recommendations

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. However, sellers pushed the 2494 level lower, and now the price may go down to 2486. Here, the buyers will try to buy back the price, so intraday you can look for buying, but with confirmation. The profit target is the resistance zone near 2509. If the price goes above 2509, it may trigger a sharp, impulsive rise in the price.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down the support level of 2451, the downtrend will likely resume.

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News feed for 2024.09.03:

• Prev Open: 2502
• Prev Close: 2500
• % chg. over the last day: -0.08 %
• Support levels: 2494, 2479, 2451, 2440, 2416, 2367, 2343
• Resistance levels: 2509, 2532
• – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

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