The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0303
• Prev. Close: 1.0389
• % chg. over the last day: +0.83 %

The euro climbed above $1.04, rebounding from two-year lows, as a weaker dollar and stronger European inflation data supported the currency. Reports that President-elect Donald Trump may limit tariffs on critical imports eased fears of widespread trade restrictions, bringing relief to Eurozone markets. In addition, Germany’s inflation rate rose to 2.6% in December, up from 2.2% in November and above expectations, the highest in almost a year. It was the third consecutive monthly rise in German inflation. The data reinforced expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will be cautious about cutting interest rates.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0328
• Resistance levels: 1.0403, 1.0425, 1.0447, 1.0493, 1.0513

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Yesterday, the European currency sharply strengthened on the background of the Dollar Index decline. With the test of liquidity above 1.0327, there was an acceleration of the price movement, which indicates the intraday pressure of buyers. After the liquidity test above the priority change level of 1.0425, the price declined slightly, but the potential for further upside is still there. Under these market conditions, buy trades should be considered on a breakout of 1.0403. If sellers react to the intermediate resistance level of 1.0403, we should expect a wave of decline to 1.0328.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0425 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

(Click on image to enlarge)

News feed for: 2025.01.07

• Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
• US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2417
• Prev. Close: 1.2518
• % chg. over the last day: +0.81 %

The British pound sterling strengthened above $1.254, recovering from an eight-month low, amid a weaker dollar following reports that President-elect Donald Trump is considering targeted tariffs instead of broader levies. This potential shift in US trade policy brought relief to countries, including the UK, that had feared more sweeping tariffs. Expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may cut interest rates in 2025 are rising after signs of a stagnant economy and a slowdown in business activity in December.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2502, 1.2454, 1.2371, 1.2299
• Resistance levels: 1.2540, 1.2568, 1.2614, 1.2667

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish, but close to change. Yesterday, the price sharply strengthened to the priority change level of 1.2540. Sellers are trying to defend positions here, but intraday pressure is building up, which is likely to lead to a change in the medium-term trend. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered at the breakout of 1.2540. Selling can be considered after a liquidity test above 1.2568 and 1.2614, but with confirmation in the form of selling side initiative.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the resistance level at 1.2540 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

(Click on image to enlarge)

News feed for: 2025.01.07

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 157.14
• Prev. Close: 157.63
• % chg. over the last day: +0.31 %

The Japanese yen fell to 158 per dollar on Tuesday, the lowest level in more than five months, prompting a new verbal intervention from a top Japanese official. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato reiterated his warning against speculative, one-way moves in the currency, signaling the government’s readiness to take action if excessive volatility persists. The comments came amid the yen’s weakening toward the 160 per dollar mark, which had already triggered intervention six months ago. The yen has been under pressure recently amid growing uncertainty over the timing of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 157.95, 157.18, 156.44, 155.94, 154.34
• Resistance levels: 158.07, 159.47

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The Japanese yen is testing liquidity above 158.07. There is a huge pool of liquidity behind this resistance level, and if sellers react and consolidate below the intermediate 157.95, the price may develop a sharp downward impulse. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the 155.94 support, the downtrend will likely resume.

(Click on image to enlarge)

News feed for: 2025.01.07

There is no news feed for today.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2638
• Prev. Close: 2635
• % chg. over the last day: -0.11 %

Speeches by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Spokesperson Adriana Kugler over the weekend reinforced the view that the US Central Bank will be more cautious in cutting interest rates this year. In addition, the economic policies of the incoming Donald Trump administration are expected to lead to higher inflation, potentially limiting the Fed’s ability to cut rates. This could put short-term pressure on precious metals. The only thing that could prevent this is rising geopolitical tensions in the world.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2641, 2622, 2603, 2570
• Resistance levels: 2652, 2660, 2665, 2672, 2692

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. However, the intraday bias is once again intercepted by the buyers. Price tested liquidity below 2631 and 2622 yesterday before sharply consolidating above 2631. Captured liquidity will now be distributed up to 2652. Intraday buying should be considered from 2641. Selling can be considered from 2652 or 2660, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the 2664 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for: 2025.01.07

• US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
• US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

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