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The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.0832
• Prev Close: 1.0759
• % chg. over the last day: -0.67 %

While the US banking crisis has limited the Fed's ability to stay on its aggressive rate path, expectations have now shifted to a pause in the rate cycle at the May meeting. With the US Fed about to end its monetary tightening cycle, the US dollar will likely remain in the way of depreciation. Many investors are wary of other unpleasant surprises as the Federal Reserve's series of aggressive interest rate hikes over the past year has yet to affect the economy fully. For its part, the ECB intends to continue to aggressively raise interest rates, as the current level of borrowing does not meet the level for lower inflation. Such a policy of the ECB will strengthen the European currency.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0680, 1.0519, 1.0482
• Resistance levels: 1.0800, 1.0862, 1.0924

The EUR/USD currency pair trend on the hour time frame is still bullish. The price has corrected to the premium zone and reached the first support level. The MACD indicator has become negative, and seller pressure is inside the day. Buy trades are best considered after completing this correction from the support level of 1.0680. It is better to buy after confirmation on the intraday time frames in the form of a structure change. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0800 or from 1.0862 in case of a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0680 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

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News feed for 2023.03.27:

• – German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2).
   

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2289
• Prev Close: 1.2226
• % chg. over the last day: -0.52 %

The latest economic data showed that UK Manufacturing PMI had declined from 53.5 to 52.8, while the Services PMI had declined from 49.3 to 48.0. Given that these indicators have been rising for the last 2 months, a drop in business activity is a very negative sign that the economy might be in trouble again. The GBP, unlike the EUR, does not have fundamental support right now as the Bank of England is extremely restrictive in its monetary policy.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2178, 1.2112, 1.2009, 1.1963, 1.1929, 1.1843
• Resistance levels: 1.2326, 1.2415

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is now correcting to the premium zone (50-70% Fibonacci retracement). The MACD indicator has become negative. It is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.2178. It is better to look for sell deals on intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.2253, with confirmation in the form of a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2112 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

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The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 130.83
• Prev Close: 130.71
• % chg. over the last day: -0.09 %

The Japanese yen was the main beneficiary of the US dollar weakness last week, following the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. Friday's inflation data showed a decline in consumer prices, but core inflation remained high. That's what the new Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, will have to face when he takes office after Haruhiko Kuroda's long tenure on April 8. There will also be plenty of economic data on Japan coming out this week that will bring trading opportunities.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 129.80
• Resistance levels: 131.68, 133.00, 133.75, 135.16, 136.07, 137.91

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and the price is trading at the level of moving averages. Such market conditions make it difficult to find good entry points. It is best to look for buy trades from the support level of 129.80, but only with a confirmation in the form of a reverse reaction or a false breakdown because the level has already been tested. Sell deals can be searched for from the resistance level of 131.68, but also with an additional confirmation in the form of a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price fixes above the 133.75 resistance level, the uptrend will be resumed with a high probability.

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The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3710
• Prev Close: 1.3738
• % chg. over the last day: +0.20 %

Oil prices declined on Friday amid falling European indices and after US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said it could take several years to replenish the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which worsens demand prospects. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so a decline in oil prices is negative for CAD. But analysts still expect a recovery in demand from China, especially ahead of the summer, so considering the dollar index losing support from the US Federal Reserve, the Canadian dollar could take over the initiative in the medium term.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3725, 1.3670, 1.3590, 1.3515
• Resistance levels: 1.3786, 1.3814, 1.3862

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is still bullish. The MACD indicator is inactive again, and sellers dominate within the day. The price is correcting. Under such market conditions, it is best to buy from the support level of 1.3725, but it is better with confirmation on the lower time frames. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 1.3814, but only with short targets and after confirmation in the form of a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3670, the downtrend will likely resume.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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