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The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1795
• Prev. Close: 1.1756
• % chg. over the last day: -0.33 %

Last month, the ECB cut interest rates for the eighth consecutive time to protect inflation expectations and prevent an unjustified tightening of financial conditions, according to the minutes of the meeting held on June 3-5. Policymakers cited “highly uncertain” global conditions, with ongoing trade tensions likely to persist. A pause in July is becoming increasingly likely, with most officials saying they want to wait for clearer data and developments in global trade negotiations before taking further action. Inflation is expected to fall below the ECB’s 2% target at the end of this year and remain low for 18 months due to the strong euro, lower energy prices, and cheap imports from China. Markets are now expecting another rate cut before the end of the year.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1748, 1.1709, 1.1666, 1.1642, 1.1581, 1.1518
• Resistance levels: 1.1810, 1.1913

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. Against the backdrop of the strengthening US dollar, the euro corrected yesterday to the support level of 1.1748, where buyers took the initiative. After additional liquidity below the level, the price now has a clear path to 1.1810 and above. The medium-term profit target remains 1.1913. There are currently no optimal entry points for selling.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.1589 and consolidates below it, the downward trend will likely resume.

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News feed for: 2025.07.04

• Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3).
   

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3633
• Prev. Close: 1.3655
• % chg. over the last day: +0.16 %

Governor Bailey said it was too early to assess the inflationary impact of tariffs, but reiterated that the trajectory of interest rates was “downward.” Meanwhile, Bank of England representative Alan Taylor called for faster rate cuts, warning of an increased risk of a “hard landing” for the UK economy. On the political front, Prime Minister Keir Starmer defended Chancellor Rachel Reeves amid speculation about her future. This helped ease concerns that a potential replacement might take a softer fiscal stance with increased borrowing.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3591, 1.3509, 1.3471, 1.3450, 1.3388
• Resistance levels: 1.3675, 1.3712, 1.3752, 1.3770, 1.4000

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bullish. The British pound found support at the 1.3591 level, where buyers actively took new positions. Currently, the price has reached the resistance level of 1.3676, where previously opened buy deals may be fixed. Here you can look for sell trades if sellers take the initiative. The resistance level of 1.3712 can also be considered for sales. There are currently no optimal entry points for buy deals.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.3470 and consolidates below it, the downward trend will likely resume.

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The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 143.63
• Prev. Close: 144.91
• % chg. over the last day: +0.89 %

The Japanese yen traded close to 145 per dollar on Friday after falling nearly 1% in the previous session, driven by trade uncertainty despite Tokyo’s efforts to reach an agreement with Washington before next week’s deadline. US President Donald Trump announced plans to begin sending official letters on trade tariffs today, potentially signaling new tariff rates or an extension of existing deadlines. He has previously threatened to raise tariffs on Japanese goods to 35%, citing Japan’s limited imports of American rice and cars.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 144.25, 143.33, 142.64
• Resistance levels: 144.48, 144.96, 145.95, 146.62, 148.28

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bearish, but close to a reversal. Yesterday, the price reached the priority change level of 144.96, but sellers managed to defend their positions. Currently, the price has corrected to the support level of 144.25, which is the breakout level. A false breakdown in the zone near this level will open up opportunities for buying. There are currently no optimal entry points for selling.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 145.95 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

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The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 3359
• Prev. Close: 3325
• % chg. over the last day: -1.02 %

Gold fell to $3320 per ounce on Thursday from $3365 earlier in the session after strong labor market data dampened bets on a dovish Fed stance. The June employment report showed that nearly 150,000 jobs were added to the US economy, significantly exceeding expectations of 110,000, and this refuted the view that the softening labor market was a reason for the Fed to cut rates this month. At the same time, markets were awaiting updated information on new trade deals from the Department of Commerce ahead of July 9, the deadline for reimposing tariffs.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 3327, 3301, 3274, 3246
• Resistance levels: 3357, 3357, 3393, 3405, 3444, 3500

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is downward, but close to a reversal. Over the past 3 days, the price has tested the priority change level three times. In turn, buyers have built a support level at 3327. This level can be used for buy deals on intraday timeframes. A breakdown and consolidation below 3327 will trigger a sell-off to 3301.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through and consolidates above the resistance level of 3357, the upward trend will likely resume.

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