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Change in Select White Collar Jobs

• Professional and Business Services: Negative 9 of 12 months in 2025
• Information: Negative 7 of 12 months in 2025
• Financial: Positive 10 of 12 months in 2025

Select White Collar Jobs Sum of Monthly Changes

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For the year, professional and business services lost 97,000 jobs. Information lost 30,000 jobs. Financial gained 38,000 jobs.

AI is impacting these job categories.

Change in Manufacturing and Construction Jobs

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Change in Manufacturing and Construction Jobs

• Manufacturing: Negative or Zero 10 of 12 Months
• Construction: Negative or Zero 7 of 12 Months

Construction did have two good months. This was likely data center construction. Residential and office has been dismal all year.

Change in Manufacturing and Construction Jobs 2025

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• Manufacturing: -68,000
• Construction: +14,000

Construction may have been negative without data center and utilities.

Change in Education and Health, Leisure and Hospitality

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2025 Jobs Synopsis

• Nonfarm payrolls gained 584,000 jobs in 2025.
• Leisure and Hospitality provided 188,000 of them.
• Private education and Health provided 709,000 of them

Together, PE&H + L&H provided 897,000 jobs of the 584,000 total jobs. Government subtracted 149,000 (a good thing).

ADP Employment by Firm Size

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Synopsis

• Small businesses are suffering
• White collar jobs other than Education and Health are suffering
• Manufacturing is suffering
• Retail is suffering (Up a mere 2,000 in 2025)
• Residential construction is suffering
• The only signs of strength are in Education and Health, and Leisure and Hospitality, marginally (188,000 is weak except in recessions)
• Negative revisions are coming

What Do We Call This?

Trump says it’s the greatest economy ever, silly.

You should known that by now.

Expect Negative Revisions

On September 9, 2025 I commented New QCEW Data Indicates More Big Negative Revisions Coming to Job Reports

The discrepancy between jobs reports and quarterly data widens again.

It’s based on highly accurate QCEW data that I expect negative benchmark revisions next month.

January 9, 2026: Nonfarm Payrolls Rise by 50,000 with 76,000 in Negative Revisions

2025 closed out with a thud. Here are the details.

Assuming there are no more negative revisions (and what is the likelihood of that), the year-over-year employment gain was just 610,000.

I expect the next benchmark revision to wipe that out. Thud!

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