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Another Soft Landing Proclamation

“Progress on inflation has brightened the economic picture despite a slowdown in hiring and pay. Wages adjusted for inflation have improved over the past six months, and the economy looks like it’s headed toward a soft landing in the U.S. and globally,” says Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP.

ADP National Employment Report

The ADP National Employment Report shows Private Sector Employment Increased by 107,000 Jobs in January; Annual Pay was Up 5.2%

Job Switching Payouts

• Year-over-year pay gains for job-stayers reached 5.2 percent in January, down from 5.4 percent in December.
• For job-changers, pay was up 7.2 percent, the smallest annual gain since May 2021.
• Median Change in Annual Pay (ADP matched person sample) Job-Stayers 5.2%, Job-Changers 7.2%

ADP Notice

January’s report presents the scheduled annual revision of the ADP National Employment Report, which updates the data series to be consistent with the annual Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) benchmark data for March 2023. In addition, this revision introduces technical updates, namely, in re-weighting of ADP data to match QCEW data. The historical file was updated to reflect these revisions.

Notice Translation

ADP revises its data to match annual BLS data from March of 2023. The BLS will do the same in its annual revisions.

The BLS does not even back adjust the numbers so its historical record is bogus. And despite being incredibly lagging, the Fed makes key decisions on the data.

Job Openings Rise in December But Quits Tell the Real Story

There’s lots of meaningless chatter yesterday about job openings. However, actions speak louder than openings.

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Data from BLS, chart by Mish

ADP reports the premium for job switching is dropping rapidly. That show up in the huge slide in quits.

For discussion, please see my report yesterday, Job Openings Rise in December But Quits Tell the Real Story

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