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ADP vs BLS Nonfarm Payrolls

The ADP^® National Employment Report shows private employers added 62,000 jobs in April

“Unease is the word of the day. Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data. It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment,” says Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP

Change by Industry Sector

• Goods-producing: 26,000
  . Natural resources/mining 6,000
  . Construction 16,000
  . Manufacturing 4,000
• Service-providing: 34,000
  . Trade/transportation/utilities 21,000
  . Information -8,000
  . Financial activities 20,000
  . Professional/business services -2,000
  . Education/health services -23,000
  . Leisure/hospitality 27,000
  . Other services -1,000

ADP Change in Employment by Employer Size

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ADP Change in Employment by Employer Size Details

• 1-9: +20,000
• 20-49: -12,000
• 50-249: +21,000
• 250-499: +19,000
• 500+: +12,000

Businesses with 20-49 employees have been struggling since the beginning of 2024. We are now seeing a rapid deceleration of the largest employers.

ADP Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment Year-Over-Year

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Strategic Uncertainty or Strategic Stupidity?

Why would any business want to expand not having any clue what Trump will do with tariffs?

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent actually brags about this. He calls it “Strategic Uncertainty”.

I call it “Strategic Stupidity”

There is no benefit to anyone knowing that Trump may undo tomorrow what he says today and that he may not honor any deal he makes anyway.

Real GDP Down 0.3 Percent, Real Final Sales Down 2.5 Percent

Earlier today, I noted Real GDP Down 0.3 Percent, Real Final Sales Down 2.5 Percent, Inventories Soar

Front-running tariffs led to a collapse in real final sales, the bottom-line estimate of GDP

A reader question came up in response to inventories. But as I commented ahead of the report, inventories will vary widely by company.

The BEA reported “The largest contributor to the increase in investment was private inventory investment, led by an increase in wholesale trade (notably, drugs and sundries).“

Sundries are miscellaneous small items, usually of no large value and too numerous to mention separately, such as toiletries, garbage bags etc.

Many drugs are manufactured in Ireland. That was a huge portion of the tariff front running.

Many small manufacturers likely do not have the steel and parts needed to stay in business if they are dependent on China.

Trump Accuses Amazon of “Hostile Political Act” on Tariff Price Labels

 Yesterday, I noted Trump Accuses Amazon of “Hostile Political Act” on Tariff Price Labels

Amazon considered, then rescinded, price tags that show tariff impact.

Hostile Political Act

Amusingly, it is now considered political act to tell the truth. Go figure.

And it gets straight to the heart of the matter as to who pays tariffs.

Rather than answer the question, the administration blames Amazon.

Every company should do what Amazon proposed to show what big liars the administration is.

Every company should do what Amazon threatened to do. Unfortunately, Amazon backed down.

How Long Will Front-Running Tariff Inventories Supply Shelves?

On April 28, I asked How Long Will Front-Running Tariff Inventories Supply Shelves?

I concluded about a month on average. Factoring in the March trade data add another few weeks. Click on above link for details.

More By This Author:

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