Please consider the ADP National Employment Report for January 2023.

Private sector employment increased by 106,000 jobs in January and annual pay was up 7.3 percent year-over-year, according to the January ADP^® National Employment Report^TM produced by the ADP Research Institute^® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).

The jobs report and pay insights use ADP’s fine-grained anonymized and aggregated payroll data of over 25 million U.S. employees to provide a representative picture of the labor market. The report details the current month’s total private employment change, and weekly job data from the previous month. ADP’s pay measure uniquely captures the earnings of a cohort of almost 10 million employees over a 12-month period.

“In January, we saw the impact of weather-related disruptions on employment during our reference week,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Hiring was stronger during other weeks of the month, in line with the strength we saw late last year.”  

Pay Growth

Pay growth for job stayers held at 7.3 percent for the second month, with most industries little changed.

One outlier was the information sector, where pay growth decelerated from 7 percent to 6.6 percent. For job changers, pay growth accelerated to 15.4 percent.

On Friday, we hear from the BLS.

Earlier today I noted Manufacturing ISM Sinks to a New Low for the Move, Repeats Recession Warning

Jobs are the only strength left in the economy. Industrial production, manufacturing, retail spending, even hours worked are all trending lower.

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