A Final Try At 4310?

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends.  A move up to ~4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top and SPX corrects into its next major cycle low due in 2023.

SPX Intermediate trend:  SPX Fell short of its base projection of 4310 but may be trying to reach it again.  

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.

New York, Wall Street, Stock Exchange

Pixabay

Cycles:  Looking ahead! 

7-yr cycle – Last lows: 2009-2016.  Next low: ~2023

Market Analysis (Charts, courtesy of QCharts) 

DJIA daily chart 

The week before last, a wave of selling placed the DJIA’s intermediate uptrend in jeopardy by breaking its uptrend line and dropping prices below the former short-term low.  This is clearly the most weakness experienced by this index since this intermediate uptrend started in late October 2020.  The index had a good rebound last week which managed to get it back slightly above its 50-dma, but not above its previous two short-term highs. If it is to nullify what looks like the beginning of a correction, the DOW will have to rise above the top red horizontal line (and keep going), which appears problematic since the strong phase of the short-term cycle is already spent, meaning that, at best, the index will probably only be able to kiss-back the broken trend line before rolling over.  Of course, even after breaking its uptrend line, the index remains inside its intermediate channel and no important correction can occur until prices come out of that channel (DIA).  

The recent price action makes the DJIA the weakest of the major indices and the bellwether of the coming correction.  The NYA is close behind!

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The above comments, as well as those made in the daily updates and the Market Summary about the financial markets, are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles. ...

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