4 ETFs To Hedge Your Portfolio Before Presidential Election
Heading into the Election Day on November 8, the race for the White House is tightening. This is especially true as Clinton’s edge of 12 points over Republican Donald Trump on October 23 narrowed to one point this week as per the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll. The polls from RealClearPolitics showed Clinton’s lead of just 2.2 points, down from 7 points two weeks ago.
While Hillary Clinton is still expected to win the final vote, the increased momentum for Donald Trump has made investors jittery. The tightening has sent tremors across the financial stock markets, with the S&P 500 logging in the longest stretch of an eight-day decline since the financial crisis.
This looks like a strange pre-election move given that the stock market generally marches higher the week before a presidential election. In fact, the S&P 500 saw an average gain of 1.8% the week before all presidential elections since 1928, according to a study by Bespoke.
Notably, the index is down 1.1% in the initial two days of the election week this year. If the stock market continues to drop for the next three days, it would be the third decline in 23 presidential elections. The S&P 500 fell 0.2% in the 1968 presidential election week and 1.4% in the 1988 presidential election week.
How to Play?
Amid heightened uncertainty over the outcome of the election, investors’ could definitely protect their portfolio by hoarding their cash in the ETF world. Below, we highlight four ETFs that look to offer stability or even profit going into the Election Day:
iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX - Free Report)
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is often known as the ‘fear index’ as it tends to outperform when investors are skittish about the market’s current direction. And this is exactly the case right now as the ETN tracking this benchmark, VXX, climbed 7.9% in the last couple of sessions. The ETN focuses on the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index, which reflects implied volatility in the S&P 500 Index at various points along the volatility forward curve. It provides investors with exposure to a daily rolling long position in the first and second months VIX futures contracts. The note has amassed $1.9 billion in AUM and trades in heavy volume of more than 28.1 million shares a day on average. It charges 89 bps in fees per year.
SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD - Free Report)
Gold is viewed as a store of value amid difficult times. The price of gold broke the $1300 level on election fears with products tracking this bullion like GLD adding 1.3% over the past couple of sessions. The fund tracks the price of gold bullion measured in U.S. dollars and kept in London under the custody of HSBC Bank USA. It is the ultra-popular gold ETF with AUM of $39.5 billion and expense ratio of 0.40%. Volume is heavy, exchanging 10.8 million shares in hand per day on average. The fund has a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 or ‘Hold’ rating with a Medium risk outlook.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT - Free Report)
The U.S. government bonds tracking the long end of the yield curve often carry a safe haven status. The flight-to-safety on election fears led these bonds higher and pushed the yields lower. Though the ultra-popular long-term Treasury ETF – TLT – lost a modest 0.3% in the past two sessions on Fed actions, it will likely gain in the next few days as more investors pile into American debt ahead of elections. The fund tracks the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, charging 15 bps in annual fees. It has AUM of $6.7 billion and an average daily volume of about 8.3 million shares. Holding 33 securities in its basket, the fund focuses on the top credit rating bonds with average maturity of 26.49 years and effective duration of 17.82 years. TLT has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 or ‘Buy’ rating with a High risk outlook.
iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol USA ETF (USMV - Free Report)
Low volatility products generate impressive returns or often outperform in an uncertain market while providing significant protection as these funds include more stable stocks that have experienced the least price movement in their portfolio. As such, USMV could be a great pick with AUM of $13 billion and an expense ratio of 0.15% though it was down 0.4% over the past couple of days. It offers exposure to 176 U.S. stocks having lower volatility characteristics than the broader U.S. equity market by tracking the MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Index. The fund is well spread across a number of securities with none holding more than 1.54% of assets. The fund trades in solid average daily volume of 3.9 million shares and has a Zacks ETF Rank of 2 with a Medium risk outlook.
Disclosure: None.
"The price of gold broke the $1300 level on election fears with products tracking this bullion like GLD adding 1.3% over the past couple of sessions."
Speaking of this particular fund, why is there a clause in the GLD prospectus that states GLD has no right to audit subcustodial gold holdings? Why would the organizations behind GLD forfeit this right and create this massive audit loophole? I haven't heard of a single good reason for the existence of this loophole so far. In addition to the audit loophole, GLD claims to be fully backed by physical gold bullion but yet it refuses to give retail investors the right to redeem for any of these ‘claimed’ gold bullion. I've read about and verified a number of other red flags as well:
"I remember CNBC's Bob Pisani visiting GLD's vault in a well documented segment. GLD's administration arranged this visit to disprove everyone claiming that GLD's gold did not exist. However, Mr. Pisani held up a gold bar with the following serial number - ZJ6752. This serial number did not appear on the most recent bar list during that time period. Cheviot Asset Management’s Ned Naylor-Leyland later found out that this "GLD" bar actually belonged to ETF Securities."
"Did anyone try calling the GLD hotline at 866▪320▪4053 in search of numerical details on GLD's insurance? The prospectus vaguely states "The Custodian maintains insurance with regard to its business on such terms and conditions as it considers appropriate which does not cover the full amount of gold held in custody." When I asked about how much of the gold was insured, the representative proceeded to act as if he didn't know and said they were just the "marketing agent" for GLD. What kind of marketing agent would not know such basic information about a product they are marketing? It seems like they are deliberately hiding information from investors."