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Unexpectedly early compared to the last US presidential elections, Donald Trump has been widely declared as the winner. Having pinned 277 electoral votes vs 224 on the Harris side, Donald Trump secured his belated 2nd term as the 47th President of the United States.

Trump’s victory translates to a new regulatory and macro landscape, from the impending departure of Gary Gensler as the SEC Chair to the likely termination of Operation Choke Point 2.0. Investors should also expect to see the removal of DEI mandates across federal agencies, as bureaucratic burden is lifted to free up capital, both human and financial.

Considering that Elon Musk’s involvement in the Trump campaign revolved around government efficiency, investors should also look forward to regulation cuts. This is likely to renew oil drilling operations, although the oil price is projected to remain stable and relatively low. 

In contrast to his former opponent Harris, Trump is expected to rely on tariffs for federal revenue. To revitalize homebase manufacturing, domestic companies could see a corporate tax rate cut from 21% to 15%. Lastly, much of the campaign centered around mass deportations, which could lead to heightened demand for detention and law enforcement services.

Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA)

Although an obvious choice, it should not be disregarded as too obvious. Elon Musk has been the key pillar of President Trump’s campaign. Now that the outcome is clear, investors should see an end to federal lawfare against Musk’s many ventures, from X and Neuralink to SpaceX and Tesla. 

More importantly, expected tariffs against China should give Tesla ample room to prepare its next lineup of affordable EVs such as Model 2, without having to resort to aggressive profit-cutting. Reminder, BYD’s Seagull price in China is in the $10k range, which is difficult for any US/EU EV manufacturer to beat. 

Although the Biden admin already quadrupled Chinese EV tariffs, the new regulatory landscape and friendlier business environment is likely to aid Tesla’s bottom line. In the ideal case scenario, if Tesla materializes its robotaxi service by robustly implementing FSD, TSLA stock price could turn out to be at an extreme discount at present.

These factors are yet to be priced in. Over the last 30 days, TSLA stock is up 11.7%, currently priced at $280.90 against the 52-week average of $209.68 per share. At this point, many shareholders are likely to lock in their profits to benefit from the “sell the news” effect. 

But heading into 2025, Tesla is expected to roll out cheaper $30k models and reduce battery costs, all on a $33.6 billion cash cushion as of Q3 2024. Accordingly, investors should expect a return to above $300 price range, per Wedbush price target. 

KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE: KKR)

For the purpose of going public with an initial public offering (IPO), new bureaucratic and DEI rules set by the Biden admin have complicated the process and increased compliance costs. With the expected end of such policies, an IPO renewal should follow.

KKR is a global investment firm that facilitates IPOs as part of its financial execution and advisory services. The company has a diversified investment portfolio across real estate, credit, infrastructure and private equity, presently in charge of $624 billion assets under management (AuM).

This is up 18% year-over-year, while the Q3 period delivered the highest fee related earnings (FRE) and total operating earnings (TOE) on record, both up over 70% year-over-year. On a yearly basis, KKR had 6% dividend yield growth, currently paying $0.70 annually per share. 

Considering that Trump’s administration is likely to lessen credit regulations, which is KKR’s main segment at $271 billion AuM, alongside infrastructure at $77 billion, KKR could see new highs. Against the 52-week average of $103.49, KKR stock is presently priced at $151.51 per share. 

Based on 16 analyst inputs aggregated by Nasdaq, the average KKR price target is $157.18 per share. The estimated top twelve months ahead is $184 while the bottom is $143 per KKR share. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE: CXW)

Since the coverage in mid-July, CXW stock is up from $15.03 to present $17.65 per share. This is the price ceiling level that has been estimated by 5 analysts prior to Trump’s victory. The company works closely with the government on local and federal level to provide efficient detention and correction management. 

Not only was this the core of Trump’s campaign, but even firmly blue California approved Proposition 36 this election. The new measure effectively overturns some of 2014 legislation that skyrocketed retail theft by classifying under-$950 theft as misdemeanors. The newly adopted Proposition 36 makes repeated shoplifting a felony as well as drug-related offenses.

Tomorrow, on November 7th, CoreCivic scheduled its Q3 2024 earnings call (9:30 AM EST). The company would have to beat the EPS forecast of $0.32 vs the reported $0.35 EPS in the year-ago quarter. Although the current CXW price seems high already, at a 34.13 forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, there is still room for speculation.

It is anyone’s guess what will be the extent of Trump’s campaign promises related to mass deportations. However, it is safe to say that private prisons will play a big role in the expanded tough-on-crime stance. Combined with lessened regulations, this could boost CoreCivic’s bottom line beyond what is currently expected.  

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