2019 Market Forecast: World Market Slowdown

In last year's market outlook for 2018, I anticipated a rise of around 10% for the SPX. At its all-time high set on September 21, the SPX had risen by 9.62%, before it began to lose its gains for the year, and more.

On December 17th, (yesterday) you will see from the first percentages gained/lost graph that 7 of the 9 Major U.S. Indices are in negative territory year-to-date.

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The second percentages gained/lost graph shows that 8 of the 9 Major Indices are in correction territory from September 21. In fact, the Russell 2000 and the Dow Transports are fast approaching a 20% bear market territory.

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The following graph shows the percentages of stocks in the U.S. Major Sectors and Major Indices above their respective moving averages.

The only ones with 50% or more of their stocks above their 200-day moving averages are the S&P 500 Real Estate, S&P 500 Utilities, and Dow Utilities.

The one to note is the S&P 500 Real Estate Sector, which has precisely 50%. If we see further weakness in this sector sending it below that level, I've no doubt that we'll see broad weakness continue across all markets.

Each candle on the following three charts of the SPX represents a period of one monthone quarter, and one year, respectively.

All three charts show clearly the weakness that this index has experienced since September, the uncertainty that has gripped it all year, and the strength of this year's bearishness versus tepid bullishness.

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Each candle on the following three ratio charts of the SPX:VIX ratio represents a period of one monthone quarter, and one year, respectively.

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