10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – July 2015
Out of the multitude of companies, which ones would legendary value investor Benjamin Graham buy today? I’ve compiled ten great companies that fit the ModernGraham criteria, based on Benjamin Graham’s methods. The companies in this list pass the rigorous requirements of either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor and are undervalued by the market. To find more companies that meet these tests, be sure to check out the ModernGraham Valuation Index.
Here are the ten companies Benjamin Graham would invest in today:
Aflac Inc. (AFL)
Aflac passes the initial requirements of both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company passes every requirement of both investor types, which is a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.
When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, it has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.89 in 2011 to an estimated $6.13 for 2015. This is a fairly strong level of demonstrated growth, and outpaces the market’s implied estimate for annual earnings growth of only 0.87% over the next 7-10 years.
In recent years, the company’s actual growth in EPSmg has averaged around 11.5% annually, and while the ModernGraham valuation model reduces the actual growth to a more conservative figure when making an estimate, the model still returns an estimate of intrinsic value well above the current price, indicating that Aflac is significantly undervalued at the present time. (See the full valuation)
American International Group (AIG)
American International Group Inc. qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned by the inconsistent dividend history, as well as the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, while the company passes all of the Enterprising Investor’s requirements. As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities. As for a valuation, the company appears undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from a loss of $109.06 in 2011 to an estimated gain of $5.14 for 2014. This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.56% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, which is based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the market price. (See the full valuation)
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
Caterpillar Inc. passes the initial requirements of both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor’s only initial concern is the low current ratio, and while the Enterprising Investor is concerned by the level of debt relative to the current assets, those concerns are overlooked since the company meets the more conservative Defensive Investor criteria. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.
When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, the company has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.96 in 2010 to $6.45 for 2014. This is a strong level of demonstrated growth, which is well above the market’s implied estimate for earnings growth of only 2.31% annually over the next 7-10 years. In fact, the historical growth is around 12.61% per year, so the market is expecting a very significant drop in earnings growth. The ModernGraham valuation model reduces the historical growth to a more conservative figure, assuming that some slowdown will occur, but still returns an estimate of intrinsic value falling above the current price, indicating the company is undervalued at the present time. (See the full valuation)
Discover Financial Services (DFS)
Discover Financial Services passes the initial requirements of the Enterprising Investor, but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor has an issue with the company’s inconsistent dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.
When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, it has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.49 in 2011 to an estimated $4.88 for 2015. This is a very strong level of demonstrated growth, which is well above the market’s implied estimate for earnings growth of only 1.75% over the next 7-10 years. The ModernGraham valuation model returns an estimate of intrinsic value falling above the current price, indicating that Discover Financial Services is undervalued at the present time. (See the full valuation)
International Paper Co. (IP)
International Paper Co. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned by the low current ratio, lack of earnings stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities. From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.49 in 2011 to an estimated $2.66 for 2015. This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 5.64% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value well above the price. (See the full valuation)
KLA-Tencor (KLAC)
KLA-Tencor performs well in the ModernGraham model and is suitable for Enterprising Investors. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the lack of earnings stability over the last ten years along with the high PB ratio, while the Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, Enterprising Investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.
When it comes to valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, the company has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.70 in 2011 to an estimated $3.22 for 2015. This is a strong level of growth and is well above the market’s implied estimate of only 5.11% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.
Here, actual growth in EPSmg over the last several years has averaged nearly 18% annually, so the market is expecting a very significant drop in earnings growth. The ModernGraham valuation model reduces the historical growth to a more conservative figure, assuming that some slowdown will occur, but still estimates a growth figure much higher than the market’s implied rate. Therefore, the model returns an estimate of intrinsic value well above the current price, indicating the company is significantly undervalued at the present time. (See the full valuation)
Macerich Co. (MAC)
Macerich Company is suitable for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only concerned by the low current ratio, and the Enterprising Investor is willing to overlook concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets because the company satisfies the more conservative Defensive Investor. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities. From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.09 in 2011 to an estimated $5.06 for 2015. This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.98% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value well above the price. (See the full valuation)
PulteGroup Inc. (PHM)
PulteGroup is not suitable for Defensive Investors but it does pass the initial requirements of the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years, and the unstable dividend history, while the Enterprising Investor’s only concern is the lack of earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, all Enterprising Investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.
When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, it has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from a loss of $3.12 in 2011 to an estimated gain of $2.11 for 2015. This is a fairly strong level of demonstrated growth, and outpaces the market’s implied estimate for annual earnings growth of only 0.61% over the next 7-10 years.
In recent years, the company’s actual growth in EPSmg has averaged considerably more than the market’s estimate annually, and while the ModernGraham valuation model reduces the actual growth to a more conservative figure when making an estimate, the model still returns an estimate of intrinsic value well above the current price, indicating that PulteGroup is significantly undervalued at the present time, a result which is in line with some of its peers. (See the full valuation)
SLM Corporation (SLM)
SLM Corporation passes the initial requirements of the Enterprising Investor, but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor has issues with the company’s inconsistent dividend history, and the lack of earnings stability or sufficient growth over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.
When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, it has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.48 in 2011 to an estimated $1.26 for 2015. This is a very strong level of demonstrated growth, which is well above the market’s implied estimate for earnings growth of an annual earnings loss of 0.14% over the next 7-10 years. The ModernGraham valuation model returns an estimate of intrinsic value falling above the current price, indicating that the company is undervalued at the present time. (See the full valuation)
Travelers Companies (TRV)
Travelers Companies qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The company passes all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities. As for a valuation, the company appears undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $5.25 in 2011 to an estimated $8.80 for 2015. This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.61% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, which is based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the market price. (See the full valuation)
Disclaimer: The author did not hold a position in any of the companies listed in this article ...
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The ModernGraham website cites the following formula as one of the Graham methods applied:
Intrinsic Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2xGrowth)
Benjamin Graham actually gave several warnings with this formula and only used it to demonstrate that the market's growth rate expectations were never reliable. But due to an omission in recent editions of The Intelligent Investor, this formula is often mistakenly used today to value stocks instead of Graham's actual (and more thorough) methods.
Benjamin Graham - also known as The Dean of Wall Street - was a scholar and financial analyst who mentored legendary investors such as Warren Buffett, William J. Ruane, Irving Kahn and Walter J. Schloss.
Warren Buffett wrote the preface for Graham's book - The Intelligent Investor - in which he calls it "by far the best book about investing ever written."
Graham's first recommended strategy - for novice investors - was to invest in Index stocks.
For more serious investors, Graham recommended three different categories of stocks - Defensive, Enterprising and NCAV - and 17 qualitative and quantitative rules for identifying them.
For professional investors, Graham described various special situations or "workouts".
Warren Buffett once gave a speech at Columbia Business School explaining how Graham's record of creating exceptional investors (such as Buffett himself) is unquestionable, and how Graham's principles are everlasting. The speech is now known as "The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville".
Your 'full valuations' are all for May - how come you are specifying this (title) as for July? None of these have changed at all in two months?
My valuations are updated on a quarterly basis for all companies meeting the requirements of either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor. Intrinsic value should not be updated more frequently than that.
The list is updated every month to screen for ten of the best companies I've reviewed. This particular list takes into account discount to intrinsic value, Price/EPSmg ratio, and dividend yields. Since all of those figures change as the market price changes, the list is different each month.