After December's unexpected huge upside surprise (+15.8% MoM), analysts expected housing starts to tumble back to earth in January as the lagged impact of higher rates unsettles homebuilders 'goldilocks' reality dream. Sure enough, Starts plunged 9.8% MoM (worse than the 7.3% decline expected), while permits rose a skimpy 0.1% MoM (better than the -1.5% exp)...

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest MoM drop in Starts since March 2024 while (forward-looking) permits have flatlined for two months.

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, multi-family permits declined for the second month in a row and single-family permits continue to show no real renaissance. Both single-family and multi-family starts were hammered in January with the former more so...

Source: Bloomberg

Going forward things do not look good as rate-cut hopes tumble...

Source: Bloomberg

...and even homebuilders are starting to lose faith...

Source: Bloomberg

While the Starts and Permits data is always lagged, we do note that mortgage applications plunged 6.6% week-over-week, tumbling bacxk to the mult-decade lows after a quick surge to start the year. Not a good sign for the American housing market.

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