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• Federal Reserve expected to hold rates steady at 5.25-5.5% during this week’s meeting.
• Easing inflation and a softening labor market provide scope for future interest rate cuts.
• Analysts anticipate potential rate reductions by September, with further cuts likely in November and December.

As the Federal Reserve convenes for its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week, the financial world is closely watching for indications of potential interest rate cuts.

While the Fed is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25-5.5%, the highest in 23 years, the meeting is crucial for setting the stage for a potential policy shift as early as September.
 

Inflation eases and the labor market softens

The backdrop to this meeting is the US economy showing signs of moderation. Inflation, which had been a persistent concern, has shown signs of abating.

Consumer price growth has slowed significantly, easing fears that spiked earlier this year due to unexpected economic disruptions. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is currently at 2.6%, a marked improvement from its peak in 2022.

Simultaneously, the labor market, a key pillar of the Fed’s dual mandate, is exhibiting signs of cooling. Hiring has decelerated from its previous pace, leading to slower wage growth and a rise in layoffs.

The three-month average unemployment rate has increased by 0.43 percentage points, nearing the 0.5% threshold of the Sahm Rule, which often signals the onset of a recession.

This dual trend of easing inflation and a softening labor market provides the Fed with the latitude to consider lowering borrowing costs.
 

Inflation control versus job losses

Brian Sack, former head of the New York Fed’s Markets Group and current head of macro strategy at Balyasny Asset Management, notes,

 

The Fed is moving closer to a rate cut, and its communications this week should reflect that.

The central bank aims to balance maintaining economic stability with avoiding unnecessary job losses. Holding the policy rate too high for an extended period risks undermining the labor market’s health, a concern Fed Chair Jay Powell is expected to address.
 

Mixed signals within the Fed

Despite the clear signals of economic slowdown, there is a range of views within the Fed about the appropriate timing for rate cuts.

In June, policymakers were nearly evenly split on the prospect of reducing rates by a quarter-point versus two for the year. This division underscores the cautious stance the Fed is likely to adopt in its upcoming meeting.
 

Waiting for more data

The Fed will have more data to consider between now and its September meeting, including two sets of inflation and jobs reports.

These updates will provide critical insights into the economy’s trajectory and inform the Fed’s decision-making process.

Former New York Fed president Bill Dudley warns that delaying rate cuts could increase recession risks, though he acknowledges that the Fed prefers certainty over haste.

Peter Hooper, vice-chair of research at Deutsche Bank and a former Fed economist, supports a September timeline for initiating rate cuts.

He argues that waiting allows the Fed to confirm trends and avoid the risk of having to reverse course.

Hooper anticipates additional rate reductions in November and December, followed by a pause until September 2025, ultimately bringing the policy rate to a more neutral level of 3.5-4%.
 

The path ahead for Fed 

As the Fed prepares for its meeting, the central bank’s challenge is to navigate between controlling inflation and supporting the labor market.

The anticipated discussions and statements this week will likely provide clearer signals about the Fed’s future policy direction, shaping expectations for the months ahead.

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