The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.2% annual rate in the first quarter of 2019. That’s better than the 2.2% average rate since the recovery from the Great Recession began in 2009:Q3, and even a little better than the average 3.1% growth over the last 70 years.

Real GDP growth at an annual rate, 1947:Q2-2019:Q1, with the 1947-2018 historical average (3.1%) in blue and post-Great-Recession average (2.2%) in red.

And year-over-year growth keeps climbing.

Top panel: quarter-to-quarter real GDP growth, quoted at an annual rate, 2009:Q4 to 2019:Q1. Bottom panel: year-over-year real GDP growth. Vertical lines denote first-quarter observations.

That brings the Econbrowser Recession Indicator Index in at 2.4%, among the lowest levels we ever see. That means the U.S. economic expansion has now been under way for 9-3/4 years, 1 quarter shy of the longest expansion on record (1991:Q2-2001:Q1).

GDP-based recession indicator index. The plotted value for each date is based solely on information as it would have been publicly available and reported as of one quarter after the indicated date, with 2018:Q4 the last date shown on the graph. Shaded regions represent the NBER’s dates for recessions, which dates were not used in any way in constructing the index, and which were sometimes not reported until two years after the date.

The details behind the GDP report, however, are a little disappointing. Inventory accumulation contributed 0.65% of the 3.2%; that’s not sustainable. Lower imports added 0.6%. That’s another measure that’s volatile at the quarterly frequency and often revised. Higher state and local government spending added 0.4%. These factors helped compensate for weaker than usual consumption growth. Housing continues to be a slight drag on the economy.

Nonetheless, the numbers unambiguously tell us that U.S economy keeps growing. Those who for several years have been predicting disaster around the corner will have to wait for at least a few more corners.