As expected, the total value of trade between the U.S. and China perked up in July 2025 following a deal struck between the U.S. and China at the end of June 2025 for rare earth materials.

The increase in Chinese exports to the U.S. more than made up for a small decline in U.S. exports to China during July 2025. The value of U.S. exports to China dipped by 1.5% from June's level to $9.298 billion as China's exports to the U.S. surged 39.4% to reach $26.411 billion.

The trailing twelve month average of the combined total of goods exchanged between the U.S. and China continued falling in July. It now falls some 12% below a counterfactual projection of how the value of trade between the two nations would have grown in the absence of the global tariff war. The following chart presents the monthly data for the combined value of goods exchanged between the U.S. and China along with its trailing twelve month average, which smooths out the year-to-year variation in the trade data in the period from January 2017 through July 2025.
 

Although the trend represented by the trailing twelve month average continued falling, the July 2025 surge in Chinese exports to the U.S. caused its decline to decelerate.

In the absence of a larger deal to significantly lower the tariffs both nations have imposed on each others goods to date however, we anticipate the trend will continue downward.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (FT900). U.S. Trade in Goods with China, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Nominal Figures, Total Census Basis. [Online database]. Accessed 5 September 2025.

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