Hours worked data from the BLS, chart by Mish

The economy is adding more workers, but they are working much fewer hours on average. 

Average Weekly Hours 2019-Present 

Across the board, people are working much fewer hours per week than pre-pandemic. 

Huge Jobs Divergence Returns, Jobs +339,000 but Employment -310,000

Nonfarm payrolls and employment levels from the BLS, chart by Mish.

On June 2, I noted Huge Jobs Divergence Returns, Jobs +339,000 but Employment -310,000

Payrolls vs Employment Since May 2022

• Nonfarm Payrolls: +4,063,000
• Employment Level: +2,422,000
• Full Time Employment: +1,734,000

Of the 894,000 rise in employment in January, 810,000 was due to annual benchmark revisions. And the BLS does not say what months were revised, just poof, here you go.

Noise? Where?

A prominent view in the household data is noise. 

However, the number of hours worked and the full time data picture matches GDI.

GDP vs GDI

GDP and GDI data from the BEA, chart by Mish

Gross Domestic Income is Telling

• 2022 Q4 GDP: +2.6 Percent
• 2023 Q1 GDP: + 1.3 Percent
• 2022 Q4 GDI: -3.3 Percent
• 2023 Q1 GDI: -2.3 Percent

GDP vs GDI

Gross Domestic Income (GDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are two measures of the same thing.

They are supposed to match, and with upcoming revisions, they will.

But which way? 

Revisions to the Downside

Heading into recessions, revisions are generally to the downside. Heading out of recessions revisions are to the upside.

GDI is very negative for 2 quarters. Hardly anyone discusses GDI but it is supposed to match GDP. 

Revisions to GDP and jobs will be to the downside. 

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