Image Source: Pixabay

Crypto prices surged this week before hitting resistance, particularly on the BTC chart. Many crypto enthusiasts were FOMO’ed, for sure. However, in our premium crypto investing research service, we have been very clear, since April, that this current 3-month cycle would have a bearish bias and new entries should only be considered as of the last 3 days of June of 2023. Even in the public space we published Bitcoin And Ethereum Preparing A Correction In A Secular Uptrend on April 23d, 2023.

In our crypto investing research service we track 7 distinct BTC charts, each of them features a different chart structure.

Why seven?

Because BTC is typically creating very rich (read: complex) structures. Because of its highly volatile nature, it tends to create multiple ‘micro structures’ as well as ‘macro structures.’ That’s why it’s imperative to identify all possible structures and analyze them against each other to understand trends and identify upcoming trends.

This particular chart is, by far, the most important one for the coming months. Some observations:

1. BTC is working on an unusually long rounded pattern. This is a bearish pattern until the pattern breaks to the upside.
2. BTC tested this pattern 3 times prior the mid-point. Yesterday & today was the first touch after the mid-point.
3. Interestingly, as we combine the rounded pattern with retracement levels, we see that, since April, BTC is playing with the 38.2% retracement level (fine yellow horizontal line).
4. The really crucial support level is 25k USD, other than a few intra-day tests in April we have seen this support level hold strong. It’s the 50% retracement level, an absolutely crucial level.
5. Yesterday’s high was a slightly lower high compared to the April high.

The way we read and understand the short and medium term for BTC? Very simple:

• We have forecasted, since many months, that the last 10 days of June would be volatile, potentially very volatile going into the last days of June.
• BTC will not escape selling.
• Yesterday’s ‘pump’ helped BTC tremendously to create ‘buffer’ for a drop in this volatility window to hold key retracement levels, particularly 27.5k and 25.0k USD.

Stated differently: July & August should be good months for BTC, a breakout is highly likely.

(Click on image to enlarge)

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