The Next Big Theme: October 2021
Electric Vehicles & Cleantech
U.S. Zeroes In On Emissions From East to West
California and New York are responsible for two of the latest developments in the global effort to reduce production and use of internal combustion engine vehicles. California set a mandate for light-duty autonomous vehicles to be emission-free by 2030.1 Autonomous vehicles represent only a small percentage of California’s vehicles, but in a future where driverless taxi services are poised to thrive, this mandate could prevent a major source of pollution. On the opposite coast, New York set a goal of zero-emission passenger cars by 2035 and zero-emission medium and heavy-duty vehicles by 2045.2
Lithium & Battery Tech
EV Revolution Charges Lithium Demand
Lithium demand is expected to outpace global supply as the economy moves toward an all-electric future. The imbalance is already pushing lithium prices meaningfully higher.3 Lithium prices hit a three-year high with sales of electric vehicles up 150% to just over 3 million units in the first seven months of the year.4 In the first half of September, domestic prices in China, the largest lithium market, increased more than 20%. With lithium-ion batteries expected to remain the primary battery technology, mining capabilities must increase. Leading lithium producer Albemarle, recently announced that it would double lithium production at its facility in Silver Peak, Nevada.5
Genomics
Human Trials Progress
Excision BioTherapeutics continues to make progress on CRISPR-based gene editing to treat patients with HIV. After promising results in early trials, the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) cleared the therapy for human testing.6 Gene editing has the potential to replace the standard retroviral therapy most HIV patients receive. The FDA also approved a trial that uses CRISPR genome editing to eradicate cancer cells in patients with acute myeloid leukemia.7 To treat patients with sickle cell disease, doctors at Boston Children’s Hospital are using gene therapy to activate healthy fetal genes and deactivate mutated adult genes as part of a clinical trial.
E-commerce
Warehouses Wanted
New data from commercial real estate services firm CBRE confirmed a post-pandemic e-commerce trend: soaring online sales are quickly filling industrial warehouse space. In Canada, industrial vacancy rates in the Greater Montreal Area dipped to a record low of 1.2% in Q3, compared to 8% just five years ago.9 The U.S. has a similar squeeze; to match package volume, the country must add at least 330 million square feet of warehouse space dedicated to e-commerce by 2025.10 For now, in a bid to handle the package surplus, logistics provider DHL Supply Chain expects to hire 20% more seasonal workers this year.11 DHL, like many other providers, is also turning to collaborative robots to help automate order picking.
Internet of Things
Biden Launches Initiative to Secure Semiconductor Supply
The Biden administration announced a new initiative to increase transparency in the semiconductor supply chain, which remains hamstrung by the global production shortage. The shortage has inflated the prices of vehicles and other electronic goods. It even caused manufacturers to halt the production of some electronic devices in September. Tech giants such as Intel, Samsung, Apple, GM, Ford, TSMC, and Stellantis attended the President’s virtual event and pledged $75 billion to mitigate long-term supply chain deficiencies, but the hope is that the initiative helps alleviate some of the bottlenecks sooner.12 Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently claimed that new semiconductor plants in the works will effectively make the chip shortage a short-term issue.13
Social Media & Blockchain
Twitter Promotes Crypto Tips
Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey views cryptocurrency as the internet’s “native currency,” so the company integrating Bitcoin on its platform is a natural fit. As part of its ongoing monetization push, Twitter announced that users will be able to send and receive tips using Bitcoin. Twitter is also looking into authenticating users’ nonfungible tokens (NFTs). Crypto continues to gain legitimacy with users attracted to its decentralized finance and blockchain technology, particularly users in developing markets. Africa is one of the fastest-growing markets for crypto with adoption increasing by a hefty 1,200% over the past year.14 Also, India made headlines as the country with the most crypto holders at 100 million, which is 7.3% of its population.15
THE NUMBERS
The following charts examine returns and sales growth expectations by theme, based on their corresponding ETFs.
(Click on image to enlarge)
1. Tech Crunch, “California makes zero-emission autonomous vehicles mandatory by 2030”, Sept. 24, 2021.
2. Economic Times, “New York sets 2035 zero-emission passenger car goal”, Sept. 9, 2021.
3. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, “LITHIUM’S PRICE RALLY ACCELERATES IN SEPTEMBER; CHINESE CARBONATE UP OVER 200% IN 2021”, Sept. 17, 2021.
4. RHO Motion, “EV Penetration Rates, %, YTD July 2021”, Sept. 9, 2021.
5. Yahoo! Finance, “UPDATE 2-Albemarle expects stellar 2022 earnings on surging lithium demand”, Sept. 10, 2021.
6. Fierce Biotech, “Excision’s CRISPR gene editing therapy for HIV is heading into human testing after FDA clearance”, Sept. 17, 2021.
7. Fierce Biotech, “Intellia’s ex vivo gene editing candidate for cancer cleared by FDA for human studies”, Sept. 16, 2021.
8. Orlando Sentinel, “Pioneering gene therapy freed her of sickle cell. Is a cure at hand?”, Sept. 14, 2021.
9. CBRE, “Canada Office and Industrial Quarter Stats Q3 2021”, Sept. 2021.
10. Supply & Demand Chain Executive, “Retailers Need 330M Sq. Ft. of Distribution Space to Meet Growing E-Commerce Demand”, Jun. 23, 2021.
11. PYMNTS.com, “Warehouse Worker Shortages Trigger Higher Pay, Use of Robot Assistants”, Sept. 27, 2021.
12. Reuters, “Chip investment boom is just getting started”, Sept. 8, 2021.
13. Times Live, “Musk says new semiconductor plants will end global car chip shortage in 2022”, Sept. 27, 2021.
14. Forbes, “Bitcoin Opportunity: Africa Adoption Rate Is Highest Globally”, Sept. 14, 2021.
15. Bitcoinist, “India Tops The List Of Crypto Ownership With 100 Million Hodlers, Where Does Your Country Place?”, Sept. 24, 2021.
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