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My U1 (15-weeks unemployment recession indicator) is very elevated.
 

What Is the Mish U1 Recession Indicator?
 

The BLS defines the U-1 Unemployment rates as the percentage of people unemployed 15 weeks or longer.

I compare a rise in the three-month moving average of 15+ weeks unemployment to a prior minimum lookback period of five months.

The formula is 3-month moving average minus the minimum of the last five months.

When readings are above 0.2, in all but one set of instances since 1948, the economy has been in recession.

U1 Unemployment 15+ Weeks
 

Unemployment Level 15+ Weeks and 27+ Weeks
 

The relationship between rising long-term unemployment and recessions is clear.

Using 3-month moving averages of the 15+ weeks unemployment smooths out fluctuations and the lookback comparison ties things together in a manner that reduces false positives.
 

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