Economic illiteracy is running rampant. It would be a huge inflationary mistake if we mass deported them all.

Data from the BLS chart by Mish

Employment Chart Notes

• Foreign-born workers are employees who reside in the United States but who were not US citizens at birth. They may be citizens now. The BLS’s definition includes both legal and undocumented immigrants.
• To be officially unemployed, one needs to be out of work, capable of working, and actively seeking work.
• U4 (not shown) includes discouraged workers defined as someone who is able and eligible to work but is not actively looking for a job because they believe their search would be unsuccessful.
• U5 includes U4 plus marginally attached workers. Marginally attached workers are people who are available for work and want a job, but haven’t looked for work in the past year for reasons other than discouragement.

How Many Illegals Are There?

• Steven Camarota, research director for the Center for Immigration Studies recently provided PolitiFact with a preliminary estimate of 14 million people in the country illegally as of March 2024. 
• The Federation for American Immigration Reform, a group advocating for reduced immigration, says there were 16.8 million in 2023.

The above stats are from the Austin Statesman. So, let’s call it 14 million on the low end and 18 million on the high end.

Shortages If All Foreign Born Employment Removed

We would have a shortage of 24 million employees if we booted all foreign-born employees.

No one is proposing that. Some are here legally and some are even US citizens.

The problem is the BLS definition includes both legal and undocumented immigrants.

Let’s approach this from a different angle.

Migration Policy Immigrant Age Estimates

From the migration policy age estimates, We can makes some reasonable estimates of labor shortages under the “Export Them All” demand.

Assume 16 million illegal immigrants, 90 percent are working age and 25 percent are unemployed.

That’s 16 * 0.90 * 0.75 = 10.8 million working.

Here are the numbers at 18 million.

18 * 0.90 * 0.75 = 12.2 million working.

I am reasonably confident of the 90 percent working age number, less so the employment percentage.

But even higher levels of employment are possible. So let’s do one more number crunch assuming a 20 percent unemployment rate.

18 * 0.90 * 0.80 = 13.0 million working.

The higher the numbers of immigrants and the more who are working, the bigger the problem.

My ballpark range is 9.0 to 13.0 million workers.

Given an unemployment level of 7 million, if you deport 9 to 13 million workers, you are going to have one hell of a labor shortage problem coupled with a massive jump in inflation. Competition for those jobs would explode.

I am surprised no economist, at least that I have seen, has taken a stab at what this might do to the labor force, so I did.

If my numbers aren’t the right ones, then have at it. Even if I am too high by 50 percent we would have one huge problem.

Complicated Subject

The above math shows it’s a complicated subject. Even Trump has admitted as much.

Consider these comments from Trump in a Wall Street Journal interview.

“We have a lot of good people in this country, and we have to do something about it,” Mr. Trump said. “This has been going on for a long time. It’s a complicated subject.” He declined to specify whom he’d deport: “I don’t want to go too much into clarification, because the nicer I become, the more people that come over illegally.” Yet after stringent talk about deterrence, he ended with nuance: “There are some human questions that get in the way of being perfect, and we have to have the heart, too.”

[The WSJ concludes, and I agree] Mr. Trump can do much on immigration by executive action, but a durable solution needs legislation. Maybe Democrats, after the electoral haymaker they got last week, will be willing to compromise more than they have in the past. Mr. Trump missed a chance for a bipartisan deal in 2018 to permanently change the border incentives on asylum and more. He’ll have a narrow window again next year, if he’s willing and has the heart.

A Sensible Plan

A sensible plan is to deport the criminals, shut the border, improve the legal process, give priority to parents and spouses of US citizens, give priority to those here the longest, and give priority to those working.

How Ugly Will Trump’s Mass Deportation Get?

Yesterday, I asked How Ugly Will Trump’s Mass Deportation Get?

I am sad to report the unthinking consensus opinion is I don’t give a damn, just do it.

Fortunately, Trump seems to be rethinking what’s needed according to the above Wall Street Journal interview.

For more details of what Trump said and the current plan, please click on the above link.

More By This Author: