TikTok won't sell to Microsoft (MSFT) and Walmart (WMT), at least not this week. It may partner with Oracle (ORCL), though the terms have not been disclosed, and the Chinese government may or may not let the sale or partnership happen (China now has a regulatory say in the sale of AI to foreigners), but… on the same day that the President signed the executive order to ban TikTok if it was not sold, he signed another (almost identical) executive order threatening to ban WeChat on the same timeline (45 days from August 6).

TikTok is a "nice to have" social video app that makes people happy. Banning it would be sad for about 100 million U.S. users, but they would quickly find alternative social video outlets for their creativity - Facebook's (FB) Instagram Reels immediately comes to mind. On the other hand, WeChat is a "need to have" communications and payment app for the entire Chinese diaspora, as well as every American company doing business in China.

One more thing: if WeChat is banned in the US, Apple (AAPL) will not be allowed to do business with Tencent Holdings Ltd (TCEHY). Have a look at iPhone sales in China as a percentage of Apple's business. WeChat is as ubiquitous in China as Google (GOOG, GOOGL) is here. Is that a 20 percent drop in iPhone sales? 30 percent? I'm not sure, but it will be a big number.