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Sam Altman announced Thursday that OpenAI expects to top $20 billion in annualized revenue this year, with plans to reach hundreds of billions by 2030. The company has committed to $1.4 trillion in infrastructure spending over the next eight years. That’s a staggering sum, and it immediately raised the obvious question: how exactly are they planning to pay for all this?

The timing is particularly interesting given the controversy that erupted this week. OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar mentioned at an event that the company was exploring an ecosystem involving banks, private equity, and a federal “backstop” or “guarantee” to help finance these infrastructure investments. She walked that back Wednesday night, clarifying that she used the wrong word and muddied her point.

David Sacks, serving as Trump’s AI and crypto czar, jumped in on Thursday with a blunt statement. There will be no federal bailout for AI companies. If one frontier model company fails, another will take its place. Altman followed up saying OpenAI doesn’t have or want government guarantees for datacenters, and that taxpayers shouldn’t bail out companies that make poor business decisions.

OpenAI is betting that revenue growth from enterprise offerings, consumer devices, robotics, and new categories like AI-driven scientific discovery will generate the hundreds of billions needed to justify these infrastructure commitments. They’re also planning to sell compute capacity directly as “AI cloud” services. The market will determine whether they’re right about demand meeting their supply buildout.

Is OpenAI building for actual demand or are they just speculating? They claim they’re already rate limiting products and can’t offer new features because of compute constraints. If that’s accurate, the infrastructure spending makes sense. If demand falls short of these projections, the market will deal with it, not the government. As best I can tell, that’s the right answer, even if the scale of the bet is unprecedented.

The controversy about government backing is a distraction. OpenAI is making the largest infrastructure bet in tech history. They’re either spectacularly right or spectacularly wrong. Time will tell.

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