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As I have done since the beginning of the government shutdown, the number of initial and continuing claims can be calculated notwithstanding, because it is based on reporting by the States, plus DC, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Then, by applying the same adjustment as was used for the same week last year, the seasonally adjusted number can also be estimated closely.

Further, since my forecasting method relies on the YoY% changes, it is almost never affected by that seasonality. 

So tabulated, for the week ending October 25, unadjusted initial claims totaled 202986 vs. 201.447 in 2024, an increase of 0.9%.  

Last year this week, the seasonal multiplier was *1.0822. Applying it gives us an estimated seasonally adjusted number of 220,000.

We can similarly calculate the four-week moving average, since the last four weeks of claims were 228,000, 224,000, and 230,000, as well as this week’s 220,000. That gives us an average of 225,500, which is -10,750, or -4.5% lower than the number of 238,500 one year ago, which was the peak week for effects by the hurricanes that struck the Southeast, particularly Florida and North Carolina last autumn. These will end within two weeks.

Using the same methodology, unadjusted continuing claims for the week ending October 18 totaled 1,708,221 vs. 1,616,081 last year, an increase of 5.7%.

The seasonal adjustment for the applicable week last year was *1.14784. Applying it gives us an estimate of 1.961 million continuing claims, or 29,000 higher than one week ago. This is still within the range of continuing claims in the past few months, although very close to the high end of that range.

To give you a graphic idea of how this data shakes out, here are initial claims (blue), the four-week average (red), and continuing claims (gold), all normed to 0 as of this week’s tabulation, compared with their readings in the past two years before the shutdown:
 

As with the past several weeks, absent hurricane distortions, this continues the general neutral trend of initial and continuing claims, higher than one year ago but much less than 10% higher, forecasting a weakly expanding economy for the next several months.

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