Competing Views 

1. Hours after Silicon Valley Bank had been shut down by FDIC, Richmond Fed president indicated he remained open to 50 basis point hike at March Fed meeting
2. Fed's foot 'unequivocally' on brake, sensible to move slower, Barkin says

Over-Under Line is 50

Target Rate Probabilities for March 2023 

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Target rate probability for March from CME Fedwatch

The immediate reaction from market participants was a reduction in the odds for a 50 basis point hike from 70 percent to 40 percent. 

That lasted a day. 

The odds of 50 basis points is now back up to 68.3 percent. 

I believe that is the correct view. The last thing the Fed wants to do is send a signal to the markets that it will always be there to bail out mistakes. 

Also, crypto is involved in this mess and the Fed will not want to help those speculators either. 

So, unless there is a much greater contagion, don't look to the Fed for any help.

Rate Hike Odds Background

Regarding bullet point #2, some people claim that Circle is not caught in a lie. Sorry it is, and their updated website proves it.

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Image from Circle website, question by Mish.

Proven Lie

1. Circle now understands that it is not 100% backed by cash and short term treasuries does it not?

2. Since it does, the March 9 chart is a lie by Circle. Period.

Circle should post an accurate chart with an explanation of the true nature of its backing. And the facts better show that Circle is not knowing involved in speculation of long term assets. 

We have no such explanation from Circle. Why?

Perhaps Circle can explain, but if it can, then why the delay? Is that not a fair question to ask?

I also want to see what the duration is on Circle's assets held at Blackrock. 

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