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Following the worst day of trading in US stocks in almost two years, equity futures suggest the market will attempt to reclaim some of that lost ground today. Lending a helping hand is the pronounced reversal in Japan’s Nikkei 225, which finished up more than 10% earlier today following yesterday’s yen “carry trade” drop of 12.4%. 

While yesterday’s better than expected July Service PMI reports from ISM and S&P Global helped walk back investors from the recession ledge after last week’s disappointing July Employment Report and July Manufacturing PMI data, we have little in the way of fresh economic data today. One often overlooked data set, the US Logistics Manager’s Index increased to 56.5 in July, the highest in four months, compared to 55.3 in June, and marking eight consecutive months of expansion in the logistics sector. 

The US Logistics’ Manager’s data also showed Transportation Prices hit the highest since May of 2022, making it the third consecutive month in which prices moved higher  due to tight capacity and increasing demand. Survey respondents are predicting that these dynamics will hold, suggesting that the freight recession is waning. That pricing data follows the upward trend in July Service PMI pricing components, suggesting further progress on inflation could be on the slow path. 

As this gets baked into investor thinking, we’ll be following today’s update for the Atlanta Fed’s rolling GDP forecast, better known as its GDPNow Model. The last figure put 3Q 2024 GDP at 2.5%, but that was before the July jobs report and yesterday’s Service PMI data for July. The likelihood is we see today’s GDPNow revision move lower, but the question is how much lower compared to the initial GDP print of 2.8% for 2Q 2024? A big drop could stoke renewed concerns of a hard landing for the economy, but before we jump the gun let’s remember this is a rolling forecast that is updated as new economic data is published. Meaning we will see a wide array of inputs ahead of the Fed’s next policy meeting that concludes in 43 days. 

The coming days also bring earnings reports from the last 25% of the S&P 500 basket. So far EPS expectations for that market barometer have inched up for 2Q 2024, but those for 2H 2024 have slipped to 8.8% compared to more than 11% just a few weeks ago per data compiled by FactSet. With reports of increasingly selective consumers, which supports our Cash-Strapped Consumer model, earnings from consumer facing companies could lead that 2H 2024 EPS consensus forecast even lower. This suggests that even though the market is looking to claw back some of its recent losses, we may have a bit further to go until we are out of the proverbial woods.

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