Zoom, AutoZone, Snowflake, Costco: The Earnings Week Ahead
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Weekly #earnings
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It is my contention that stocks have been sold indiscriminately in recent weeks, and now is the time to start looking for the values amidst the rubble. Toward that end, I want to take a look at a number of stocks reporting earnings this week in an attempt to search for opportunity.
Let’s start with pandemic darling Zoom (ZM), which reports Monday afternoon. Zoom is paradigmatic of a class of stocks we can call early stage growth. The stock reached almost $600 in late 2020 before cratering to a recent $89.74.
From a fundamental perspective, Zoom looks attractive. Zoom is guiding current year EPS to $3.45-$3.51 for a 26x multiple on current earnings. And that doesn’t include that $5.4 billion of cash and short-term investments on Zoom’s balance sheet. From a purely fundamental perspective, Zoom is a buy here.
However, given the current market environment for speculative tech stocks, I don’t want to buy Zoom ahead of earnings. My plan is to be opportunistic and look to pick up shares should the stock selloff post earnings.
The reason for this is that in this market environment, where the market hates everything tech, I think we can wait for terrific prices. It’s certainly possible that Zoom bounces on earnings, but I prefer to hold off until after earnings, when a terrific bargain may be had.
Next let’s take a look at a very different kind of stock in AutoZone (AZO), which reports earnings on Tuesday morning. AutoZone is one of the leading auto parts retailers. With a shortage of auto parts and new cars, consumers are repairing their old cars, and AutoZone is therefore in a sweet spot. Comps were +13.6% in the recent quarter and +13.8% in the prior quarter.
Therefore, unlike Zoom, AutoZone shares have been in a steady uptrend before a recent nasty selloff. With the supply chain bottlenecks in new automotive production, I expect AutoZone to continue to hum along. Therefore, playing AutoZone strikes me as trickier than playing Zoom.
I want to get into AutoZone – though, of course I want to get the best price. One strategy is to buy half your position before earnings and half after since I don’t have a good feel for how the stock will react to earnings.
Third, let’s take a look at $400 billion chip maker Nvidia (NVDA), which reports on Wednesday afternoon. Nvidia was one of the great stocks during the bull market, but it’s been cut in half over the last six months. It trades at about 32x my 2022 EPS estimate of $5.25.
From a fundamental perspective, Nvidia is probably fairly valued right now. But, again, I don’t think you need to be a hero and put on a position before earnings. You may well get a nice opportunity to pick up shares if Nvidia sells off after earnings, and if it doesn’t, there will be other opportunities down the road.
Fourth, let’s take a look at cloud data analytics company Snowflake (SNOW), which reports on Wednesday afternoon. Snowflake is a former darling whose shares have been hit hard in the last six months – but I’m not sure if it was hit hard enough. Even with the nasty selloff, Snowflake still trades at a very expensive 23x current year revenue guidance.
Compare that to Zoom, which trades at 26x current year EPS guidance. That’s a very different valuation equation. As a result, I would absolutely stay away from Snowflake pre-earnings. The only scenario under which I would touch it is in the event of a post-earnings meltdown. If the shares were to get taken to the woodshed to the tune of 20% or 30%, I may pick up shares for a swing trade.
Last, let’s take a look at consumer staples stalwart Costco (COST), which reports earnings on Thursday afternoon. Costco hung in longer than most stocks, reaching new highs as recently as a month ago before being bludgeoned last week in the retail massacre that was catalyzed by Walmart (WMT) and Target’s (TGT) brutal quarters.
While Costco is a stock I want to own in the current environment, it is by no means a bargain. At 35x my estimate for 2022 EPS, it trades at a significant premium to Walmart and Target. While I am willing to pay up for it, perhaps not this much. Therefore, I would need to see further weakness to initiate a position.
In conclusion, I think the strategy in this environment is to wait and see if these stocks sell off after earnings and you can pick up bargains. With the market so pessimistic, there’s no reason to step in ahead of earnings as you may well get a better price after. The one difficult call is AutoZone – but even here I’m inclined to wait for the post-earnings reaction.