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The CNN Fear and Greed Index hit “Extreme Fear” territory this week - or what you might call full-blown panic territory. Yet Brent Donnelly found something different when he surveyed investors…

Source: CNN

I recently sat down with Brent, who runs Spectra Markets and is one of the sharpest currency traders I know. His investor survey revealed a market that’s repricing risk rather than fleeing from it entirely.

Brent argues that we’re watching the zero-revenue AI plays and debt-heavy infrastructure names get hammered while companies with actual cash flows hold up better. The pivot point came in late October with Meta’s earnings report. META shared the same message it had in July: AI capex will be higher than expected. But in July the stock ripped. And in October, the stock sold off on the same message. That’s not about the company—it’s a shift in investor psychology.

Brent’s survey found that 65% of respondents would rather short OpenAI at a $500 billion valuation on a three-year time horizon than go long. Think about that. Most believe AI is a bubble, but they don’t think it’s topped yet.

Video Length: 00:39:29

I pressed Brent on what happens when OpenAI’s current $20/month subscription model can’t support its capital requirements. His answer involves looking back at the search engine wars of 1998-2003. AltaVista led in 1998. Yahoo and AOL dominated in 1999. Google didn’t take over until 2003. The ultimate AI winner might not be the current leader, and the market knows it.

We also talked about trading currencies during the government shutdown—which Brent describes as “pretty horrible.” Currency traders depend on US economic data, and that data stopped flowing. Even worse, when it resumes, it will be polluted by shutdown effects well into 2026.

In our interview, you’ll also hear:

• Brent’s explanation for Warren Buffett’s recent bet on Google
• How currencies function as automatic stabilizers when economies heat up
• Why Brent describes FX speculators as “pilot fish around the shark”

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