Going into this Fed interest rate meeting market expectations are that the Fed will hike by 25bps.
Short term interest rate markets are pricing in a 95% chance of a 25bps hike to 5.125%. However, the forward guidance is going to be the key focus for this meeting. So, do the Fed see rate cuts coming this year? Or will they affirm their hawkish stance to bring down US inflation?
Look at the seasonal reaction to the S&P500 to help gauge a market strategy for this FOMC meeting.
Over the last 25 years, when the Fed hikes rates, the S&P500 has risen into the event, but then sold off in the days afterwards. So, if the Fed do take a more hawkish stance in their forward guidance watch out for sharp selling in the S&P500!
Major Trade Risks: The major trade risk here is that the Fed announce a hike, but then signal rate cuts to come. However, note that this response is already priced into the markets with two rate cuts expected by STIR markets.
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular ...
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular financial instrument, group of securities, segment of industry, analysis interval or any particular idea, approach, strategy or attitude nor provides consulting nor brokerage nor asset management services. seasonax GmbH hereby excludes any explicit or implied trading recommendation, in particular, any promise, implication or guarantee that profits are earned and losses excluded, provided, however, that in case of doubt, these terms shall be interpreted in abroad sense. Any information provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media shall not be construed as any kind of guarantee, warranty or representation, in particular as set forth in a prospectus. Any user is solely responsible for the results or the trading strategy that is created, developed or applied. Indicators, trading strategies and functions provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media may contain logical or other errors leading to unexpected results, faulty trading signals and/or substantial losses. seasonax GmbH neither warrants nor guarantees the accuracy, completeness, quality, adequacy or content of the information provided by it or on this website or any other kind of data media. Any user is obligated to comply with any applicable capital market rules of the applicable jurisdiction. All published content and images on this website or any other kind of data media are protected by copyright. Any duplication, processing, distribution or any form of utilisation beyond the scope of copyright law shall require the prior written consent of the author or authors in question. Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
