What Will Amazon Shares Do Post Earnings?
Amazon.com (AMZN) is expected to report earnings today after market close. The whisper number is $4.88, sixteen cents ahead of the analysts' estimate and showing strong confidence from the WhisperNumber community.
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A year ago the company reported earnings of $3.27, $1.91 ahead of the whisper number. Amazon has a 50% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 48 of the 78 earnings reports for which we have data).
Earnings history:
- Beat whisper: 39 qtrs
- Met whisper: 3 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 36 qtrs
Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we analyze what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe:
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The strongest price movement of +6.5% comes within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and -3.2% within ten trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. The overall average post earnings price move is 'as expected' (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see weakness) when the company reports earnings.
The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction:
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The company has reported earnings ahead of the whisper number in all of the past four quarters with a whisper number. In the comparable quarter last year the company reported earnings $1.91 ahead of the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 3.8% loss in five trading days. Last quarter the company reported earnings thirteen cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized a 4.5% gain in thirty trading days. Overall historical data indicates the company to be (on average within thirty trading days) an 'as expected' price reactor when the company reports earnings.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not ...
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So beating the whisper number was a success, but beating the revenue was sort of sad. Things are slowing out there!
True, but overall, I'd say Amazon will always continue to impress. They play the long game. The company sacrifices a lot of immediate revenue to achieve more market penetration and
Diversity is their strength. They gave Kohl's a boost.
Very true, but I think they are far more innovative than companies like Apple. Apple is very good at refining other companies' ideas, and making them more intuitive and user friendly. But not great at coming up with their own ideas. Their iphone and ipad lines have gotten pretty stale. Amazon is always one step ahead of other companies.