What To Watch In Snap Earnings Report

Snap Inc. (SNAP) is scheduled to report results of its fourth fiscal quarter after market close on February 3, with a conference call scheduled for 5 pm ET. What to watch for:

1. OUTLOOK: During the company's last earnings call, Snap said it saw fourth-quarter revenue of $1.17B-$1.21B, with consensus at $1.20B, and adjusted EBITDA of $135M-$175M. The company also said that it saw fourth-quarter Daily Active Users between 316M-318M, up 19%-20%.

2. AD MEASUREMENT HEADWINDS: On Thursday, KeyBanc analyst Justin Patterson lowered the firm's price target on Snap to $36 from $85 following Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta's (FB) earnings reports. The analyst sees ongoing ad measurement headwinds driving shifts out of social, vertical headwinds, and margin pressure from investment. Taken together, multiples should compress, Patterson contended. While he is cautious the degree of margin risk could be a new sentiment overhang, he acknowledged valuation multiples have swung considerably, leaving room for results to be "less bad" than feared. The analyst kept an Overweight rating on the shares.

3. IDFA HEADWINDS, COMPETITION: Late last month, Wedbush analyst Ygal Arounian downgraded Snap to Neutral from Outperform with a $36 price target as he saw risk to the company's revenue growth targets stemming from IDFA headwinds, difficult comps from stellar growth in 2020-2021, and increasing competition from TikTok in particular. The analyst has seen little evidence of progress against IDFA since Snap reported third-quarter earnings, with his checks indicating continued headwinds across digital advertising.

While that is the biggest near- and potentially mid-term impact to Snap's ability to get back to 50%-plus revenue growth, competitive factors are increasing as well, which leave him more cautious on a risk/reward basis, particularly in an environment where high growth risk multiples are under duress, Arounian argued.

More bullish, Stifel analyst Mark Kelley resumed coverage of Snap earlier this week with a Buy rating and $45 price target. The analyst stated that he is encouraged by the resiliency of the platform's user base throughout the pandemic, along with the company's pipeline of under-monetized and yet-to-be-monetized products. Kelley added that he sees "significant upside" to his estimate for Snap.

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