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Archer Aviation (ACHR) is set to release its third-quarter earnings report next Thursday after the closing bell, putting pressure on the air mobility specialist to deliver the goods. While ACHR stock has enjoyed a solid run recently, the move up has been incredibly choppy. And though investors recognize the potential of the underlying electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) technology, the latest disclosure will need to show some substance.

On paper, analysts are looking for Archer to post a loss per share of 30 cents. In the year-ago quarter, it reported a loss of 29 cents against an estimate calling for 32 cents in the red. As a pre-revenue enterprise, the current investment thesis for ACHR stock centers on its potential to shift the mobility paradigm. To that end, multiple deals with government agencies and strategic acquisitions help the cause considerably.

Still, Archer will need to continue impressing onlookers to attract investor inflows. Primarily, a source for anxiety is the sharp rise in market value. A little over a year ago, Archer’s market capitalization sat at $1.16 billion. Fast forward to the present day and this metric stands at around $7.34 billion. Therefore, without earnings or revenue to back up this premium, management needs to deliver a substantive story.

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Quantitatively, ACHR stock presents a difficult read. Since its public debut, the security’s forward 10-week distributional profile represents a standard bell curve, with median outcomes ranging from approximately $10 to $12 (assuming an anchor of $11.38).

However, ACHR stock is currently structured in an ultra-rare 4-6-U sequence: four up weeks, six down weeks, with an upward slope. Under this profile, the expected outcome ranges from $7 to $13, with price clustering predominant at around $9.40. That’s a negative delta of 17.4% in price density dynamics, which isn’t great.

But the catch is that the 4-6-U sequence has only materialized twice so it’s not a useful statistical barometer. Subsequently, the crux of Archer’s upside narrative in the near term rests almost solely on the upcoming Q3 earnings report.

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