Image Source: Mike Mozart, Flickr

Cash-strapped consumers are pulling back on spending—particularly on big-ticket items—as economic uncertainty and tariff risks continue to plague outlooks and squeeze household budgets. Goldman's latest grocery pricing survey for June offers a clear framework for value-seeking shoppers: among all major supermarkets, Walmart remains the most competitively priced, especially for perishable goods.

Goldman analysts, led by Leah Jordan, sampled 38 SKUs across dairy, frozen, dry grocery, household-personal care (HPC), and produce of Kroger (KR), Albertsons/Randalls (ACI), Walmart (WMT), Sprouts (SFM), Whole Foods (WFM) and Dollar General (DG) for June. 

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The biggest takeaway that Jordan found is that Walmart continued to have the "lowest prices" of any supermarket chain:

As highlighted in Exhibit 1, WMT had the lowest prices at -12.6% vs. the group average (widened from -12.2% last month), followed by KR at -4.7% (vs -2.6% last month). WFM had the highest prices in the group at +10.0%, followed by SFM at +9.9%. KR had the highest SKU availability for the products surveyed at 38, followed by WMT at 37.

Grocery Pricing Survey Analysis: Walmart Offering Best Prices 

Category Pricing Summary: 

• Walmart led on price in dairy (-14.0%), frozen (-15.2%), and dry grocery (-11.0%).
• Dollar General had the lowest prices in household & personal care (-17.3%).
• Kroger was cheapest in produce (-15.4%) but priciest in HPC (+5.6%).

Cash-strapped Consumers Should Avoid: 

• Whole Foods: highest in dairy (+16.3%) and frozen (+13.8%).
• Sprouts: highest in dry grocery (+32.0%) and produce (+10.8%), though SKU availability was limited.

Month-on-month trend

• Overall basket: essentially flat versus May; dairy, frozen and HPC down, offset by upticks in dry grocery and produce.
• Big movers: KR cut prices in all five categories; SFM raised in three.

Walmart has long dominated as the lowest-priced retailer—even before the onset of tariff wars (read here)—as U.S. grocers have launched a value battle to capture a larger share of budget-conscious consumers.

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