Walmart Earnings Preview

fan of 100 U.S. dollar banknotes

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I have owned Walmart (WMT) for a couple of years now. Everything was going smoothly until a year ago when it reported a bad quarter and the stock got smashed (you can clearly see the sell-off in the chart provided). So, what did I do? I bought more.

WMT now makes up ~7% of my long/short portfolios. My average price is $140, and it closed Friday at $154. It pays a 1.49% dividend.

I’m looking at the stock this morning as it is heading into earnings next Thursday morning. Last quarter, WMT guided current year EPS to $5.90-$6.05. At the midpoint, that equates to a 25.6x multiple at the current price. That is not cheap.

But WMT is the essential consumer staples go-to for the majority of middle class and lower middle class Americans because of its low prices. If the economy is going through a rough spell, then that means the cycle is also in favor of WMT as more consumers will shift down.

So while I don’t see a great edge in WMT, I think the stock will continue to make steady progress higher of 10-12% per year, and I’m happy to hold on for that. There’s always the temptation to try to hit home runs, but singles get the job done with a lot less risk.


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