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• US stock futures decline after four consecutive days of gains, with investors betting on the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady following lower-than-expected consumer inflation data for May.
• Chinese company shares listed in the US rise as China’s central bank lowers its short-term lending rate for the first time since August 2022. JD.com surges 3.5% and Alibaba Group climbs almost 2%.
• Intel Corp. jumps 2.5% amid reports of talks with SoftBank Group Corp’s Arm to be an anchor investor in its IPO.
• Bunge Ltd. sees a 2.5% jump as it merges with Glencore-backed Viterra, creating a $34 billion agricultural trading giant.
• The dollar index remains subdued around 103.2 after a 0.3% loss in the previous session, as softer US inflation data reinforces expectations of a pause in the Fed’s tightening cycle.
• The US inflation rate falls to 4% in May, the lowest in over two years, influencing market expectations for the Fed’s interest rate decisions.
• Uncertainty remains as markets are divided on whether the Fed will hold rates steady or resume tightening in July, while also anticipating monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.
• ECB expected to raise policy rates by 25 basis points this week and again in July, while the BOJ likely to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy due to economic recovery challenges and global growth slowdown.

The E-mini S&P 500 experienced a modest 0.1% increase in the European trading session, extending its four-day winning streak and targeting swing highs from April of the previous year. The Federal Reserve’s potential pause in interest rate hikes, which has exerted pressure on the dollar, has been supportive of equities and commodities.

Currently trading above major VWAP perspectives, including the Yearly, Quarterly, and Monthly developing value area, the market exhibits a strong bullish bias. Investors may consider establishing core short positions around swing highs as sellers may demonstrate potential absorption around these particular areas.

In the short term, market participants may anticipate a pullback from current highs as an opportunity to enter long positions or add to existing ones. Key levels of interest include the developing VWAP and the lower value extreme of the session.

With negative volatility in the short and medium term, the market retains a bullish outlook, further supported by a weaker dollar. The volume profile structure suggests a p-shaped pattern, with the Point of Control (POC) located in the upper region of the previous price range, reinforcing the session’s bullish bias. However, a potential shift below the POC could alter the bias to bearish for this particular session.

2 Months Ago

The TPO profile indicates a balanced price profile, with the presence of low price structures in the lower area. Sellers may target these levels, given the potential for a pullback, while buyers should remain cautious. Traders could also lean on the extremes to conclude rotational scenarios.

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