U.S. new vehicle sales should rebound in March after dropping to a 3-month low. According to the Bloomberg consensus, they should rise to 16.40m(e) SAAR, up from 15.67m in February.

Most of specialists I’m following closely are also betting on a strong bounce:

1- Industry consultants J.D. Power and LMC Automotive said “The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 16.4 million units, up 5.2 million units from 2020 and down 0.9 million units from 2019.”

2- TrueCar, Inc noted “total new vehicle sales will reach 1,460,820 units in March 2021, up 42% from a year ago and up 13% from February 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.4 million units.”

3- In the meantime, “The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of sales this month is forecast by Cox Automotive to hit 16.5 million, up from February’s 15.7 million pace and well above last March’s dismal 11.4 million level.”

4- Finally, Wards Intelligence expects sales to reach 16.50 million SAAR in March.

A rebound of new vehicle sales in March would support retail sales (release scheduled for April 15th) that are already expected to be stellar amid new stimulus checks. In the meantime, high frequency indicators have also pointed to significant improvement in other parts of the economy. As a result, it’s very likely that economists will revise upward their estimates for 1Q21 GDP and for the full year. The consensus for 2021 GDP (at +5.7%) still looks very optimistic.