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The main focus for traders today will of course be the latest round of US jobs data. Stocks have been trading higher recently against a backdrop of softer-than-forecast US data, strengthening the view that the Fed will hold off from tightening in September. In terms of the forecast for today’s release, the market is looking for the headline NFP to print 169k from 186k prior, wage growth at 0.3% from 0.4% prior, and the unemployment rate to remain steady at 3.5%.  
 

Potential Outcomes & Trading Scenarios

Should the data err on the weaker side, USD is likely to trade lower as traders downplay their tightening expectations through year-end. In this scenario, the Nasdaq should push higher. Alternatively, if we see any unexpected upside in today’s data, this will likely make the near-term outlook a little more obscure. If we see any strong upside beat, the USD is likely to find higher levels as late shorts cover their positions, leading stocks lower near-term. The extent to which we see a risk-off move would depend on the scale of the upside and would likely need both jobs and wage growth to come in well above forecasts which, on the back of recent data, looks unlikely.
 

Technical Views

Nasdaq

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The recent correction lower in the Nasdaq saw the market finding firm support ahead of a test of the 14288.2 level. Price has since turned higher and is now back above the 15177.5 level. While above here, the focus is on a further push higher towards the 16010.4 level next, in line with bullish momentum studies and the broader bull trend. Only a break of 14288.2 will negate the bullish view. 

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