The market closed with a double-distribution profile, with more time spent in the lower distribution, giving the session a slightly bullish nuance. However, the dominant framework remains rotational, as price is likely to rotate between the two distributions to repair the low-volume area until a decisive breakout occurs in either direction.

The volume profile displays a P-shaped structure, suggesting potential long liquidation or profit-taking during the latter part of yesterday’s session. The developing POC remains the key reference level, determining intraday bias as support or resistance depending on where price trades relative to it.
 

Developments in Venezuela did not materially pressure markets, and participants are now focused on Friday’s jobs report to further assess the rate-cut path, which remains supportive from a macro perspective. Factory activity posted one of the sharpest contractions in the U.S., reinforcing a dovish backdrop where negative data is interpreted constructively by the market.

Continued capital inflows into the Russell 2000, emerging markets, and higher-risk assets such as Bitcoin keep the broader bullish bias intact. Dr. Copper remains firm, supporting positive growth expectations and inflation risk, keeping the commodities trade active. Elevated crude oil prices continue to anchor inflation expectations.

Despite the dovish tone, the new month has seen strength in the U.S. dollar, which could act as an early pressure signal, especially when combined with a firmer VIX. Yield dynamics reflect growth concerns alongside a dovish bias, which remains supportive for equities. Credit markets continue to show healthy conditions, although rising TIPS may introduce uncertainty around holding rates steady at the next policy decision.

Overall, the bullish bias remains intact, but conviction is tempered by lingering macro crosscurrents, favoring rotational behavior until clearer directional catalysts emerge.

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