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Yesterday, Wednesday, I had an absolute blast trading. Today? Not so much. It seems there’s a lot more strength to this “trade war is over, so let’s all buy stocks” zeitgeist than I anticipated. I’d like to highlight some important Fibonacci levels with respect to the major equity index futures.

For the /ES, it’s at 5650, although there is a lower level, marked with an arrow, which I also regard as important. This represents the base of all the overhead supply, and if the market gods wouldn’t mind too terribly, it would be helpful if we didn’t even bother tagging the Fibonacci again. If we cross above the blue, however, the circle red number is the next meaningful resistance.

For the /NQ, it’s just above 20,000, which is nearly 700 points higher. I am staying a very safe distance from tech stocks, especially the Mag 7, but the /NQ seems to best poised to roll over the bears if the market in general keeps going higher (in point of fact, the past three days have represented the strongest trio of days on the /NQ is about a quarter of a century!)

What I’m most interested in among these three is the small caps, the /RTY. We may already be at the Fib exhaustion level on this one, but if we aren’t, the next Fib higher is at 2078.

I do find it a little interesting that the quick spurt we saw on the /RTY (perhaps because of the good vibes from GOOGL) did a pitch-perfect job of sending prices up to the Fib, nice and neat.

In any case, I was at Peak Portfolio on Monday, but I’ve definitely given up the requisite pound or two of flesh since then. I’ve lightened up considerably, with my four portfolios at commitment levels of 97% overall, down from about 154% earlier this week. Not feeling really great about this market right now, but let’s see how the big indexes behave with respect to the aforementioned resistance levels to see what’s next.

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