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Each week we run a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model on a company from our watchlist. This week’s pick: Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER).
 

Profile

Uber Technologies Inc. is a global leader in ridesharing and food delivery, operating across more than 70 countries. After years of operating losses, Uber has recently achieved profitability on a net income and free cash flow basis. Its platform benefits from strong network effects, diversified business lines (Mobility, Delivery, Freight), and continued growth in gross bookings. However, the business remains sensitive to competitive dynamics, regulatory risks, and ongoing capital requirements.
 

DCF Analysis

Inputs

Discount Rate: 10%
Terminal Growth Rate: 3%
WACC: 10%

Forecasted Free Cash Flows (in billions)

2025: $7.5 → PV: $6.82
2026: $8.5 → PV: $7.02
2027: $9.5 → PV: $7.14
2028: $10.5 → PV: $7.20
2029: $11.5 → PV: $7.21

Total Present Value of FCFs: $35.39B

Terminal Value Calculation

Using the perpetuity growth model:

TV = (11.5 × 1.03) / (0.10 − 0.03) = 169.07B

Present Value of Terminal Value = $106.09B

Enterprise Value

Enterprise Value = 35.39B + 106.09B = 141.48B

Net Debt

Cash: $6.98B
Total Debt: $11.13B
Net Debt: $4.15B

Equity Value & Per-Share Value

Equity Value = 141.48B − 4.15B = 137.33B

Shares Outstanding: 2.11B
Intrinsic Value per Share = 137.33 ÷ 2.11 = $65.10
 

Conclusion

DCF Value: $65.10
Current Price: $92.95
Margin of Safety: –30%

Uber has successfully transitioned into consistent profitability and strong free cash flow generation. However, at the current market price, the stock trades above our conservative intrinsic value estimate, suggesting limited upside based on this DCF model.

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