Tough Year For Peloton Capped With JMP Downgrade

PELOTON CLOSES OUT TOUGH 2021 WITH JMP STEPPING TO SIDELINES: JMP Securities analyst Andrew Boone downgraded Peloton Interactive (PTON) to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target. The company's website visits and page views declined year-over-year in December according to SimilarWeb, says the analyst, who moved his projections to be below consensus and guidance for fiscal 2022. Traffic data provides confirmation that Peloton demand was "significantly pulled forward during the pandemic, creating difficult comps for this fiscal year," Boone tells investors in a research note. The analyst continues to believe that Peloton offers "best-in-class" hardware and digital content and has growth drivers in new products and international expansion, but with his estimates now below consensus as U.S. Bike sales slow, he's stepping to the sidelines.

Peloton, which started 2021 trading over $152 per share, is now trading under $37 per share to close out the year, making for a decline of greater than 75%.

GOLDMAN, CREDIT SUISSE SAY EXXON UPDATE IMPLIES STRONG Q4: Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta estimates that Exxon Mobil's (XOM) 8-K filing last night implies that Q4 EPS excluding identified items and LIFO effects came in at $2.00 at the mid-point, versus his prior estimate of $1.72 and FactSet consensus of $1.75. Following the trading update 8-K, which he said implies "strong Q4 results," Mehta revised his Q4 EPS estimate from $1.72 to $1.95 and said he remains constructive on Exxon Mobil shares heading into the quarter and 2022. Mehta keeps a Buy rating and $71 price target on the stock.

Meanwhile, Credit Suisse analyst Manav Gupta tells investors that Exxon Mobil's Q4 indicators show that earnings will be "very strong" and well above pre-pandemic levels. While Street estimates have earnings being up quarter-over-quarter, exploration and production came in better than expectations, says the analyst. Based on the indicators from Exxon, the analyst believes total upstream could be up $2B in Q4 versus last quarter, refining could be up $200M while chemicals will be down $700M, which he says is expected with commodity chemicals margins now off peak levels. The indicators imply continued improvement in earnings, says Gupta, who keeps a Neutral rating on Exxon Mobil with a $73 price target into the company's Q4 print.

DOMINO'S GETS STREET-HIGH TARGET FROM ARGUS: Argus analyst John Staszak raised the firm's price target on Domino's Pizza (DPZ) to $640 from $520 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company is better positioned than most of its competitors during the pandemic given its strong brand and emphasis on online ordering and pizza delivery, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Staszak adds that Domino's has been "spending aggressively" on its e-commerce platform, and online sales now account for more than 70% of U.S. revenue. The $640 price target on Domino's shares is the currently the highest among 31 firms that cover the stock tracked by Bloomberg.

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