Today's Trading Plan: Back To Buying The Dip

Technical Analysis:

  • Third straight day of higher gains for S&P 500 (SPXafter successfully holding support at the 2190 level. 
  • An intraday test of the 10-day moving average resulted in an immediate surge in price that lasted throughout the rest of the day for SPX. 
  • Russell 2000 (IWM) saw record highs yesterday after completely erasing a 5-day decline in just two days of rallying and its chart is back on solid footing. 
  • Despite the other indices performing strong, the Nasdaq (COMPQ) lags, and needs to break 5350, and eventually 5400 to re-assert its dominance. There has been some short-term oversold readings in the index, that could indicate a more substantial bounce can be had. 
  • Volume on SPDRs S&P 500 (SPYcontinues to weaken for a fourth straight day - and well below averages. This has become the hallmark of most rallies of the past few years - low volume and a continual melt-up. 
  • CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIXcontinues to get smashed, dropping another 2.9% down to 11.79. At this point, the August lows are being threatened. 
  • Crude (/CL) attempting its slide for a second straight day and is attempting to break some key support at the $50 price level. 
  • Lower highs continue to be made on the T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) and has established lower-highs on each major surge to new highs that occurred in July and again in November. This should be a major concern for traders as the the highs aren't being made on substantial breadth across the market. Typically I would expect well over 80% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average when price is at all time highs. Right now it is at 68%.
  • With the election behind us, the market should start to turn its attention to the Federal Reserve and the eventual rate hike that will come on December 14th when the next FOMC statement is released. 

My Trades:

  • Sold LOW yesterday at 72.48 for a 1.1% profit. 
  • Sold SPXU yesterday at 21.49 for a 0.5% loss. 
  • Covered GOOGL yesterday at 780.27 for a 0.42% loss. 
  • Added four new long positions to the portfolio yesterday. 
  • I will look to add 1-2 new swing-trades to the portfolio today.
  • I am currently 40% Short / 10% / 50% Cash

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 12 7 16

Disclosure: None.

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Comments

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Chee Hin Teh 7 years ago Member's comment

Thanks Ryan for sharing. Merry Christmas