• Week packed with macro updates set to stir US500
• US500 eyes key data shaping growth and inflation
• PPI and retail sales steer views on demand trends
• PCE data could shift Fed cut odds and move US500

For the US500, attention turns to a dense run of U.S. macro data that will shape expectations for growth, inflation, and Fed policy into year-end. Tuesday brings September PPI and Retail Sales, key for assessing upstream pricing pressures and the health of the consumer.

On Wednesday, the unusual dual release of September and October PCE provides the Fed’s preferred inflation signal, amplifying potential market impact. US500 may see elevated volatility as investors reassess the Fed’s policy trajectory.
 

US500 Dynamics



Events Watchlist:
 

Tuesday, Nov 25: US PPI (Sep)

Producer prices continue to guide markets on inflation momentum at the input level. A softer-than-expected PPI print would reinforce the disinflation trend and support risk appetite, helping the US500 stabilize or extend gains. A hotter reading, however, would suggest lingering pipeline inflation pressures and could weigh on valuations by lifting rate-cut uncertainty.
 

Tuesday, Nov 25: US Retail Sales (Sep)

Retail sales offer a quick read on consumer strength heading into year-end. A stronger print would signal resilient demand and support earnings expectations, potentially helping the US500 firm or grind higher. A weaker reading would point to cooling spending and could pressure cyclicals, though the disinflation signal may soften the downside for the index.
 

Wednesday, Nov 26: US PCE Price Index (Sep & Oct)

With PCE as the Fed’s key inflation gauge, back-to-back softer readings would reinforce disinflation and strengthen rate-cut expectations, potentially providing a tailwind for the US500. Hotter data across both months would raise concerns about sticky inflation, potentially lifting yields and weighing on index valuations.

Other major events this week:

Monday, Nov 24

• EUR: Germany Ifo Business Climate (Nov)
• USD: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov); Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Sep & Oct)

Tuesday, Nov 25

• FRA40: France Consumer Confidence (Nov)
• USD: US PPI (Sep); Retail Sales (Sep); ADP Employment Change
• WTI: API Crude Oil Stock Change (w/e Nov 21)

Wednesday, Nov 26

• AUD: Australia Inflation Rate (Oct)
• NZD: RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
• USD: US Durable Goods Orders (Sep); GDP Growth Rate (Q3); Initial Jobless Claims (w/e Nov 22); PCE Price Index (Sep; Oct)

Thursday, Nov 27

• NZD: New Zealand Business Confidence (Nov)
• GER40: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Dec)
• EUR: Eurozone Economic Sentiment (Nov)
• MXN: Mexico Balance of Trade (Oct)
• SPN35: Spain Business Confidence (Nov)
• CAD: Canada Current Account (Q3)
• JPY: Japan Unemployment Rate (Oct); Industrial Production (Oct); Retail Sales (Oct)

Friday, Nov 28

• JP225: Japan Housing Starts (Oct)
• EUR: Germany Inflation Rate (Nov); France Inflation Rate (Nov)
• GBP: UK Nationwide Housing Prices (Nov)
• CHF: Swiss Retail Sales (Oct); GDP Growth Rate (Q3); KOF Leading Indicators (Nov)
• CAD: Canada GDP Growth Rate (Q3)

Sunday, Nov 30

• CNY: China NBS Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

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