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Someone asked me my win rate on a webcast yesterday and I turned red.

Seriously. Like, I get so pissed at that question it's almost as bad as when somebody says "quadruple witching." My blood pressure spikes and I want to reach through the screen.

You know why that question makes me furious? Because who the hell cares what your win rate is?

I could be wrong 90% of the time and still crush it. 

In fact, that's exactly what happened during one of the most profitable periods of my trading career.

The Crisis-Seeking Years

Back in 2007-2008, I was flying all over the world for Thinkorswim. Singapore, you name it. I literally couldn't sit in front of screens all day for about two years because I was constantly on planes - and this was before internet on flights.

So I switched everything to what we call "crisis seeking."

I'd place one massive trade - think gigantic Christmas tree spreads, risk reversals, these complex structures that were basically betting on market chaos. Then I'd sit there and go, "Let's do this."

I was wrong probably 90% of the time.

But here's the thing - I only had to be right once.

When we crashed in 2008? Talk about Christmas. It was literally a seven figure payday into the crash.

How Crisis-Seeking Actually Works

Here's what those structures look like in practice:

Take a Christmas tree spread - I'd buy deep out-of-the-money puts, sell some at-the-money puts, and buy more puts even further out. The setup costs money upfront and loses every day the market stays calm.

But when volatility explodes? 

The deep puts go ballistic while the short strikes can't keep up. It's specifically designed to lose small consistently and win massive when chaos hits.

Same with risk reversals positioned for crashes - sell expensive calls, buy cheap puts way down. Market goes sideways or up? You bleed premium. Market falls off a cliff? You make multiples of your entire risk.

Most days these trades expire worthless. I'm literally wrong 90% of the time. But that 10% when markets lose their minds? That's where fortunes get made.

Why This Beats Your Approach

Market making firms make money nine out of ten trading days. People hear that and go "That's ridiculous!"

But ask them how bad the day is when they lose: "Sometimes it resets everything we made for those other nine days."

Holy crap, right?

While you're worried about being right 70% of the time, I'm positioned to be wrong most of the time but collect massive payoffs when markets crack.

Like right now - I think the S&P could go higher this morning. But would I buy it? Hell no. Because if we go up, it's maybe 30 handles. Golf clap. That ain't gonna pay me.

But if we go down? We go down huge. The downside is perilous and bottomless right now.

The Strategy You Should Actually Use

Instead of chasing win rates, structure your trades like this:

Risk small amounts on high-probability chaos events. Buy protection when it's cheap, not when you need it. Build positions that lose pennies and make dollars.

The first thing they ever told me in trading wasn't about picking direction. It was about understanding that markets will do whatever the hell they want to do, and your job is to be positioned when they do it.

This business is much more than "I think we're going up, I think we're going down." That's where everybody enters this business, but it's not where the money is made.

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