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If 2025 has taught us anything, it’s that Wall Street’s moods can change faster than Florida weather. Just six months ago, the market was in full-blown panic mode after President Trump announced his ‘Liberation Day’ tariff plan – a move so aggressive it hadn’t been tried by an American president in a hundred years.

Back in April, everyone from hedge fund legends to Reddit traders called it economic suicide. Some even warned that we were headed for another ‘Black Monday,’ like the one in 1987 when the S&P 500 dropped -20% in a single day.

Fast forward to now, and it feels like we’re living on a different planet. The Nasdaq is up +50% in just six months, thanks mostly to a cooling of tariff-induced fears and AI mania. In fact, Wall Street has transitioned from bracing for a crash to worrying about a bubble.

So where exactly are we in this cycle – and does the past offer any clues?

“This Feels Exactly Like 1999”
 

Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones, one of the legends of the trading world, recently went on CNBC and said that the current market “feels exactly like 1999.” His advice? “Investors need to position themselves like it’s October 1999.

That’s quite the statement. Back then, the Nasdaq doubled between late 1999 and early 2000 before the bubble burst. If Jones is right, there could still be a lot of upside left. He even hinted that this market could be stronger than the one in the dot-com era.

And when Paul Tudor Jones makes historical comparisons, people listen. He famously predicted the 1987 ‘Black Monday’ crash using chart overlays of 1929. His fund returned +125% that year. And now, if you overlay the 1999 chart with 2025, the similarity is almost spooky.

The Bull Market is Just Getting Started
 

The rally that began once the tariff drama faded is still pretty young – only a few months old. Historically, bull markets last about four years on average. So if history rhymes, this one could still have plenty of room to run.

Rate Cuts at Record Highs = Rocket Fuel
 

Then there’s the Fed. Chair Jerome Powell recently cut interest rates while the S&P 500 was hitting new highs – something that’s happened only a dozen times in history. According to JPMorgan, in all 12 of those cases, the market was higher a year later, with a median gain of +15%.

That’s like pouring jet fuel on an already raging fire.

AI Expands Beyond Chips
 

So far, the biggest winners of the AI boom have been semiconductor stocks like AMD and infrastructure plays, such as CoreWeave and Bloom Energy (BE). But now we’re seeing the next wave – AI’s move into software.

Take Figma and Shopify (SHOP), for example. Both stocks jumped recently after signing deals with OpenAI.

• Figma is integrating ChatGPT directly into its design tools.
• Shopify’s deal lets ChatGPT users buy products directly through AI chat, skipping the traditional e-commerce flow entirely.

That’s a glimpse into the future of conversational commerce, where AI helps consumers shop as easily as chatting with a friend.

Excitement, Yes. Euphoria? Not Yet.
 

Sure, the Nasdaq is up +50% in six months – that’s enough to make any investor’s pulse race. But we’re not quite at euphoric levels yet.

According to the AAII Sentiment Survey, 33.7% of investors are bullish, 20.3% neutral, and a still-high 46.1% are bearish. Not exactly the kind of “everyone’s getting rich” mindset you see at market tops.

Plus, there’s still about $7 trillion sitting in money market funds – basically cash on the sidelines. If stocks keep climbing, some of that money will eventually flow back into the market, giving the rally even more fuel.

Valuations Are High – But Could Go Higher
 

One big worry: valuations. The S&P 500 is trading around 23 times earnings, higher than the long-term average, but still nowhere near the dot-com peak of 40X.

Investors today are clearly willing to pay a premium for innovation, especially for companies driving the AI revolution. In that context, current valuations might not be as stretched as they seem.

Bottom Line
 

The 2025 bull market is one of the most powerful in recent memory. The recovery from the “Liberation Day” panic has been dramatic, but the data still suggests this rally could keep going – maybe even doubling again from here.

If history is any guide, we might just be in the early innings of another unforgettable chapter in market history.

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