The US Post-Election Year Suggests A Stronger Seasonal Decline
As a Seasonax user, you’re familiar with seasonal charts. They depict the average price movement depending on the season.
But you can differentiate even further. Individual years in the four-year US cycle have a typical pattern. The four-year cycle is also called the election cycle.
The US presidential election took place last November . The current year, 2025, is therefore a post-election year.
The election, in turn, influences stock prices even beyond election day. For the markets, the year of the four-year election cycle we are in is crucial.
The 4-year cycle has a lasting impact on the markets
The phenomenon known as the 4-year election cycle does not differentiate according to the winning party, but rather according to the year of the presidency.
The reason is suspected to be fiscal and monetary policy measures, which are influenced by politicians and monetary policy depending on the election. Presidents want to be re-elected or want a successor from their party and this results in some repeated fiscal patterns.
The typical course of the post-election year
The chart now shows you the average performance of the S&P 500 for only the post-election years. It is, in a sense, a seasonal chart, calculated only from the prices of every fourth year, the post-election years.
The chart shows you at a glance how the S&P 500 typically performs in the post-election year.
S&P 500, typical post-election performance, 1928 to 2025
September is particularly weak. Source: Seasonax
You can see how the prices peak at the turn of the month from July to August and then fall (see arrow on chart). September is particularly weak.
September is a weak month even in the normal course of the year, but this is now confirmed for the US post-election year as well. Moreover, prices remain at a lower average level in the post-election year. Furthermore, an autumn rally like in other years is unlikely to occur.
However, as an investor, you don’t need to despair. You can also consider other investments like gold, or short positions, or focus even more on seasonally good instruments when selecting stocks. The Seasonax screener and our suggestions on the Seasonax website will help you with this.
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Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular ...
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